Week 3 Recaps
50% Accuracy: A Dark Day for the Model
This was a dark day for the model. A 50% straight-up accuracy — half right, half wrong — was not up to par. The season-to-date average entering Week 3 was 72% across 32 games. This week's performance…
Read More →Chicago's 20-Point Upset Over Philadelphia Exposes Model's Pregame Miscalibration
The Chicago Bears defeated Philadelphia 27-7 on Sunday, a 20-point margin that inverted the model's entire read on the game. Before kickoff, the model projected a Philadelphia win by 3.5 points, with…
View Game →Denver Stuns LA With 30-26 Upset Win, Model Missed Pregame Read
Denver entered Sunday's matchup against Los Angeles as the underdog in both the model's pregame projection and the betting market. The market favored the Rams by 1 point, while the model gave Denver…
View Game →Baltimore's 34-31 Win Over Dallas Validates Model Projection
Baltimore defeated Dallas 34-31 in Week 3, a result that aligned closely with pregame expectations despite the late-game tension suggested by the final margin. Matrix's simulation projected…
View Game →Las Vegas Stuns New Orleans as Model Misread Pregame Matchup
Las Vegas defeated New Orleans 35-27 in a Week 3 upset, with the Raiders winning by 8 points in a game the model projected would favor the Saints by 3.5 points. The gap between projection and result…
View Game →MIN edges TB in tight matchup; model's projection off by 6 points
Minnesota's 23-16 victory over Tampa Bay played out nearly as the pregame market expected—the Vikings were favored by 1 point—but the model's simulation underestimated the final margin by a…
View Game →49ers' 6-point win falls short of model's 7.6-point projection
San Francisco's 36-30 victory over Arizona in Week 3 played out closer than the pregame model expected, though the outcome itself aligned with consensus. The model projected the 49ers to win by 7.6…
View Game →Washington Stuns Seattle as 8.5-Point Underdog in Week 3 Upset
The model had this one decisively wrong. Seattle entered Sunday as a heavy favorite with an 8.5-point spread and a 74% win probability in the simulation. Washington was given only a 26% chance to win…
View Game →Jaguars Demolish Patriots; Model's Projection Missed by 26 Points
Jacksonville's 35-6 victory over New England was neither close nor unexpected—but it was far more decisive than the pregame numbers suggested. The model projected a Jacksonville win with 59%…
View Game →Cleveland's 21-18 Upset Over Carolina Defied Model's 2-Point Projection
The Cleveland Browns pulled off a road upset over Carolina on Sunday, winning 21-18 in a game where the model assigned them just a 44% chance of victory pregame. Carolina entered as the market…
View Game →Buffalo's 8-Point Win Over LAC Slightly Exceeds Projection of 7-Point Margin
Buffalo's 24-16 victory over Los Angeles validated the pregame model projection with remarkable precision. The model expected Buffalo to win by 7 points with a 70 percent win probability, while the…
View Game →Model Underestimated Indianapolis in Week 3 Upset Over Houston
The Indianapolis Colts' 19-17 victory over the Houston Texans on Sunday delivered a clear upset, with the model's pregame projection significantly misjudging the outcome. Before kickoff, the model…
View Game →Giants' Narrow Win Fits Model Projection, but Scoring Fell Short
The New York Giants defeated Tennessee 12-7 in Week 3, a result that validated the model's directional read but revealed a significant scoring gap. Pregame, the model projected a Giants win by 2.5…
View Game →Steelers Stun Bengals in Upset; Model Reversed Field Correctly
Pittsburgh entered Week 3 at Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog in both the betting market and the model's simulation. The Steelers' pregame win probability was 41%, with an expected final score of…
View Game →Chiefs' 14-point win over Dolphins wider than model projected
Kansas City's 24-10 victory over Miami played out largely as expected—the Chiefs won as the heavy favorite—but the final margin exceeded the model's pregame projection by 4 points. Before kickoff,…
View Game →Detroit's 7-point win over New York tops model projection by narrow margin
Detroit entered Week 3 as the clear favorite against New York, and the model's pregame analysis aligned with the betting market: the Lions were projected to win by 6.5 points with a 69% win…
View Game →Atlanta's 35-14 Win Over Green Bay Was a Major Upset; Model Favored Packers Heavily
The Atlanta Falcons stunned Green Bay 35-14 on Sunday, delivering one of the week's clearest departures from pregame expectation. The model assigned Atlanta only a 37% win probability before kickoff,…
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