Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders — Win Probability

Washington Stuns Seattle as 8.5-Point Underdog in Week 3 Upset

The model had this one decisively wrong. Seattle entered Sunday as a heavy favorite with an 8.5-point spread and a 74% win probability in the simulation. Washington was given only a 26% chance to win and projected to score just 16 points in a predicted 24.5-16 loss.

Instead, Washington won 33-31—a two-point victory that inverted the entire pregame forecast. The upset magnitude was substantial: the model expected Seattle to win by 8.5 points, but Washington won by 2, a 10.5-point swing from projection to result.

The scoring pattern also diverged sharply from simulation. Washington's 33 points exceeded the model's projection by 17 points. Seattle's 31 points exceeded its projection of 24.5 by 6.5 points. This was not a defensive slugfest or a low-scoring upset—both teams scored well above their expected output, but Washington's offensive performance relative to projection was the decisive difference.

The market line (8.5 points favoring Seattle) and the model's 74% win probability for Seattle were aligned. Both were wrong in the same direction, suggesting the pregame consensus simply underestimated Washington's capability or overestimated Seattle's. This was not a case where the model diverged from smart money and lost; both agreed on Seattle, and both were proven incorrect.

For a Week 3 result, this represents a substantial model miss—not a narrow call that could have gone either way, but a full-scale inversion of the favored outcome. Washington moved to 1-2 on the season while Seattle fell to 2-1, both contrary to the pregame expectations that heavily favored the Seahawks.