Week 6 Recaps
57.1% Week 6: A Dark Day for the Model
This was a dark day for the model. A 57.1% straight-up accuracy—down from a season 62.8% baseline—represents performance that was not up to par. Eight wins in fourteen games tells the full story: the…
Read More →49ers' 6-point win falls short of model projection in narrow miss
San Francisco's 23-17 victory over Washington played out as the expected result but with notably less margin than the model anticipated. The 49ers entered as 70% favorites with an expected score of…
View Game →GB Stuns DAL as Model Overestimated Cowboys' Strength
Green Bay's 23-13 victory over Dallas was a clear upset by the pregame numbers, and the gap between projection and result reveals how the model read this matchup—and where it missed. Before kickoff,…
View Game →Chiefs' 16-point win over Chargers exceeded model projection by 8.5 points
Kansas City's 22–6 victory over Los Angeles was not an upset—the model favored the Chiefs at 72% win probability pregame, matching the market's 7.5-point spread. But the actual result significantly…
View Game →Buffalo edges Vegas in tight result; model slightly overestimated margin
Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas played out closer than the model anticipated, though the pregame projection correctly identified the Bills as the likely winner. The model projected a Buffalo…
View Game →Cardinals Stun Rams in 18-16 Upset; Model Massively Underestimated Arizona
Arizona arrived at Los Angeles as a heavy underdog in Week 6, and the model agreed emphatically. The Cardinals carried just a 16% win probability in the pregame projection, while Las Vegas and the…
View Game →Model's Tight Call on Steelers-Buccaneers Held Up; Pittsburgh Won as Projected Favorite
The model's pregame projection proved directionally sound in Pittsburgh's 26-19 victory over Tampa Bay, though the Steelers' actual margin of victory was notably wider than expected. Before kickoff,…
View Game →Model Underestimated Cleveland in 13-10 Upset Over Baltimore
Cleveland's 13-10 victory over Baltimore on Sunday was a clear upset, and the pregame model significantly underestimated the Browns' chances. The model projected Baltimore to win by 2.9 points, with…
View Game →Model's 7-point projection proved precisely right as Patriots topped Jets
New England's 26-19 win over New York on Sunday played out almost exactly as the pregame model predicted, a rare instance where projection and reality aligned perfectly at the margin. Before…
View Game →Tennessee Upsets Indianapolis as Model Projected Colts Dominance
Tennessee's 26-20 victory over Indianapolis on Sunday was a clear upset, flipping the script on what the pregame model anticipated across nearly every dimension. Before kickoff, the model projected…
View Game →Saints Edge Giants in Close Contest; Model Underestimated New Orleans
New Orleans won 34–27 over New York, a 7-point margin that exceeded the model's pregame projection by more than 6 points. The Saints were favored by 1 in the market and carried a 53% win probability…
View Game →Chicago's 8-Point Win Over Atlanta Significantly Outpaced Model Projection
The Chicago Bears' 31-23 victory over Atlanta on Sunday played out as a more decisive result than either the model or the market anticipated. Chicago entered with a 53% win probability and a…
View Game →Panthers Beat Eagles by 11, Crushing Model's Tight-Game Projection
Carolina's 25-14 win over Philadelphia on Sunday was not an upset—the Panthers entered as the market favorite with a 59% win probability—but it was a decisive miss for the pregame model's scoring…
View Game →Houston Stuns Jacksonville as Model Underestimated Upset Magnitude
Houston's 34-31 victory over Jacksonville qualified as a genuine upset by both simulation and market standards, but the model's pregame read significantly understated how dramatically the Texans…
View Game →Broncos' 3-Point Upset Over Seahawks Defies Model's 2.4-Point Seattle Projection
Denver's 17-14 victory over Seattle on Sunday was a straightforward upset by the numbers: the model projected a 2.4-point Seahawks win before kickoff, yet the Broncos won by 3. That 5.4-point swing…
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