Week 1 Recaps
KC's 21-Point Win Far Exceeds Tight Model Projection
Kansas City's 31-10 victory over Denver came as a substantial deviation from what the Matrix model projected pregame, though the direction of the outcome aligned with expectations. The model favored…
View Game →Giants Stun Cowboys as 8-Point Upset Defies Model Projection
The New York Giants pulled off a Week 1 upset over Dallas, winning 28-20 as a 41% win probability underdog in the model's pregame assessment. The victory marked a significant deviation from both the…
View Game →Raiders' 14-Point Win Far Exceeds Model's 3-Point Projection
Las Vegas entered Week 1 as the betting market's favorite over Miami, with a published spread of 3 points. The Matrix model projected a Raiders win by 3 points as well—LV 21.7, MIA 18.7—assigning Las…
View Game →Model's 5.4-Point Edge Proved Accurate as Philadelphia Edges Washington
Philadelphia's 24-22 victory over Washington validated the pregame model projection, though the actual margin of victory fell short of the forecast by 3.4 points. The model projected a Philadelphia…
View Game →Model underestimated Minnesota's dominance in Week 1 win over Green Bay
The model projected a one-score game. Minnesota won by 17 points, and that gap tells the story of how thoroughly the Vikings outplayed the Packers in Week 1. Before kickoff, the model's simulation…
View Game →Detroit's 1-Point Win Over New Orleans Tests Model's 7-Point Projection
Detroit's pregame model projection called for a 7-point victory over New Orleans, built on an expected final score of 28.3–21.2 in the Lions' favor. The market agreed on the direction—Detroit was the…
View Game →Steelers Edge Falcons; Model's Projection Holds Up in Week 1
Pittsburgh's 20-13 victory over Atlanta played out almost exactly as the model anticipated. The Steelers were favored at kickoff with a 68% win probability, and they delivered a non-upset result that…
View Game →Jaguars exceed projection in decisive Week 1 rout of Browns
Jacksonville's 34-10 victory over Cleveland was a decisive win that exceeded the model's pregame expectations by a significant margin. The Jaguars were favored going in, and they delivered—but by…
View Game →Bengals edge Buccaneers as model nails spread, underestimates scoring
Cincinnati's 33-27 win over Tampa Bay played out almost exactly as the pregame model predicted in terms of margin, though both teams scored more than expected. The model projected Cincinnati to win…
View Game →75% Week 1: Model and Market Both Stumbled on Four Upsets
The model finished Week 1 at 12-4 straight up—a solid 75% accuracy—but it came with a caveat: the market went 12-4 as well, meaning this was a universally difficult week rather than a solo…
Read More →Arizona's 26-14 Win Over LA Defies Model Projection by 21.5 Points
The Arizona Cardinals pulled off a Week 1 upset, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14 in a result that deviated sharply from pregame expectations. The Cardinals won by 12 points and improved to…
View Game →Jets Stun Titans in Week 1 Upset; Model Underestimated NY
The New York Jets defeated Tennessee 23-10 in a Week 1 upset, delivering a result that contradicted both the pregame model projection and the market consensus. Before kickoff, the model favored…
View Game →Ravens Demolish Colts as Model Underestimated Baltimore's Firepower
Baltimore's 41-23 victory over Indianapolis was a decisive win, but not the one the pregame projection anticipated. The model gave the Ravens a 59% win probability with an expected margin of 3…
View Game →Buffalo's 36-31 Win Over Houston Far Exceeds Model's Modest Projection
The Buffalo Bills defeated the Houston Texans 36-31 in Week 1, a result that significantly outpaced what the Matrix model projected before kickoff. The model expected a tight game: Buffalo 23,…
View Game →San Francisco's 20-Point Upset Over LA Rams Exposes Model Underestimation
The San Francisco 49ers delivered a decisive 27-7 victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, a result that deviated sharply from both the model's pregame projection and the market…
View Game →Seattle's 3-Point Win Matched Model Projection With Precision
Seattle defeated New England 13-10 in a game where the model's pregame projection proved remarkably accurate, both in outcome and magnitude. The model projected Seattle to win with a 59% probability…
View Game →Model's Chicago projection proved far too conservative in 59-37 rout of Carolina
The model entered Week 1's Chicago-Carolina matchup calling it nearly even, despite rating the Bears as slight favorites. It projected a Chicago win by 2.9 points with a final score of 25.2-22.3,…
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