Week 4 Recaps
56.3% Accuracy: This Was a Dark Day for the Model
Week 4 was not up to par. The model went 9–7 straight-up—a 56.3% accuracy rate that sits 8.3 points below the season-to-date average of 64.6%. The market fared identically, also hitting 56.3%, which…
Read More →Atlanta's 45-24 Upset Over New Orleans Exposed Major Model Miss
The model saw this as a near-toss-up heading into Week 4, projecting New Orleans to win by 1 point with a 47% win probability for Atlanta. The market agreed New Orleans was favored, posting a 1-point…
View Game →Panthers' 6-Point Upset Over Lions Exposes Model Miss on Detroit
Carolina arrived in Detroit as a clear underdog by every measure. The market favored the Lions by 4 points, and Matrix's pregame model gave Detroit an even wider edge—projecting a 27.7–23.8 Lions…
View Game →Model Underestimated SF Dominance in 10-Point Win Over Denver
San Francisco's 24-14 victory over Denver was not an upset—the model favored the 49ers pregame at 59% win probability, matching the market's 3-point spread. But the margin of victory revealed a…
View Game →KC's 3-point win over LV falls short of model's 4.5-point projection
Kansas City's 30-27 victory over Las Vegas played out almost exactly as the market expected, but the model's simulation was slightly more bullish on the Chiefs' margin of victory. Before kickoff,…
View Game →Seattle Beats LAC as Expected; Model Nails Both Margin and Winner
Seattle's 30-23 win over Los Angeles on Sunday played out almost exactly as the model projected before kickoff. The Seahawks were favored at the market spread of 7 points, and the pregame simulation…
View Game →Model projected Minnesota by 10.1, got a 5-point result instead
The Minnesota Vikings' 15-10 victory over Miami on Sunday confirmed the model's pregame read on the matchup itself — it had Minnesota as a 77% win probability favorite — but significantly…
View Game →Baltimore's 6-Point Win Fell Short of Model's 11.5-Point Projection
Baltimore defeated Tennessee 24–18 in Week 4, but the game played out significantly tighter than the model's pregame simulation suggested. The Ravens were favored to win with an 81% win probability…
View Game →Chicago's Defense Delivers: Model Underestimated Bears in Win vs. Jets
The Chicago Bears defeated the New York Jets 23-12 on Sunday, a decisive 11-point victory that exceeded the model's pregame projection by more than three full scores. Before kickoff, the model…
View Game →Patriots Stun Bills: Upset Win Defies 7-Point Projection Gap
New England entered Sunday as a 30-percent proposition to beat Buffalo, according to the pregame model. The market agreed, installing Buffalo as a 7-point favorite. The simulation projected a Bills…
View Game →Jacksonville Upsets Cincinnati as Model Underestimated Jaguars
Jacksonville's 22-17 win over Cincinnati on Sunday qualifies as a clear upset—the model gave the Jaguars only a 43% pregame win probability and projected them to lose by 2.5 points. The market…
View Game →Rams Edge Eagles as Model's Projection Proves Prescient
The Rams defeated the Eagles 24-20 in a game where the pregame projection nearly matched reality down to the margin. The model expected LAR to win by 3.5 points with a 60% win probability, and the…
View Game →Giants' 36-24 Upset Over Cardinals Defies Model's Projection
The New York Giants pulled off a 12-point upset victory over Arizona on Sunday, winning 36-24 despite entering the game as a significant underdog in both the model's projection and the betting…
View Game →Model's GB-TB Projection Proved Nearly Exact in 17-14 Packers Win
Green Bay's 17-14 victory over Tampa Bay played out almost exactly as the model had simulated it, a rare alignment between pregame projection and final result that suggests the model's read on both…
View Game →Dallas upsets Houston as model underestimated Cowboys in 34-30 shocker
The model projected Houston to win by 3 points and gave Dallas just a 41% win probability before kickoff. The market agreed, installing Houston as a 3-point favorite. Dallas had other ideas, winning…
View Game →Model Overestimated Margin Tightness in Colts' Decisive Win
Indianapolis came to Washington as a 5-point favorite and delivered a decisive 30-13 victory, but the game played out far more lopsided than the pregame projection suggested. The model had forecast a…
View Game →Model Missed Cleveland's Upset Win by Nearly Six Points
The Cleveland Browns pulled off a 27–24 upset over Pittsburgh on Sunday, a result that diverged sharply from what the pregame model projected. Before kickoff, the model gave the Browns only a 41% win…
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