Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens — Win Probability

Baltimore's 6-Point Win Fell Short of Model's 11.5-Point Projection

Baltimore defeated Tennessee 24–18 in Week 4, but the game played out significantly tighter than the model's pregame simulation suggested. The Ravens were favored to win with an 81% win probability entering the matchup, and both the model's projection and the market's betting line aligned perfectly at an 11.5-point spread in Baltimore's favor.

The model expected Baltimore to score 27 points and Tennessee to put up 15.5. The actual result—a 6-point margin with the Ravens at 24 and the Titans at 18—delivered the correct winner but underperformed the projected scoring differential by 5.5 points. Baltimore scored 3 points below its simulation, while Tennessee exceeded its expected total by 2.5 points, a combination that compressed what should have been a double-digit victory into a single-possession game.

This miss represents a meaningful gap rather than a minor variance. The model and the market were in lockstep on Baltimore's dominance, yet the Titans proved more competitive than either assessment implied. Tennessee's 18 points came closer to respectable offensive output than the 15.5 projected, though the Titans' 0–4 record after this loss underscores their broader season struggles.

For Baltimore, the win moved them to 3–1, confirming the model's identification of them as a strong team—the 81% pregame probability proved accurate in selecting the outcome. However, the narrowness of the actual margin raises a flag: the model may have overestimated Baltimore's efficiency advantage or underestimated Tennessee's ability to stay in the game despite being heavily favored. In close-call territory, this kind of compression—projection miss of 5.5 points on an 11.5-point spread—warrants attention for pattern-tracking across future games.