Week 5 Recaps
64.3%: This Was a Dark Day for the Model
This was a dark day for the model. A 64.3% straight-up week is barely above season-to-date (62.5% over 64 games), and it arrived amid a slate where the market itself stumbled to an identical 64.3% —…
Read More →Buffalo's Upset Win Over LA Flips Script on Model Projection
The Buffalo Bills were not supposed to win this game. The pregame model assigned them only a 40% win probability against the Los Angeles Rams, and projected a 3.5-point loss. The betting market…
View Game →Model underestimated Baltimore; Ravens stun favored Falcons in Week 5
Baltimore entered Sunday as a 3.3-point underdog against Atlanta, and the model was even more skeptical. The simulation projected the Falcons to win by 3.2 points, with Atlanta scoring 23.4 and…
View Game →49ers Stun Seahawks as Model Whiffs on Seattle Upset
San Francisco's 32-29 victory over Seattle in Week 5 was an upset—and it was the kind that exposes real model error, not just variance. Before kickoff, Matrix's simulation gave the 49ers only a 41%…
View Game →Detroit's 45-21 Win Over Arizona Far Exceeded Model's Conservative Projection
Detroit's 45-21 victory over Arizona was not an upset—the model favored the Lions at 66% win probability pregame—but the final margin obliterated the projection by a substantial distance. The…
View Game →Denver edges LAC as model projection holds up in 6-point win
Denver's 23-17 victory over Los Angeles on Sunday played out almost exactly as the model predicted before kickoff, with the Broncos winning by a margin that aligned closely with pregame…
View Game →Giants Stun Commanders in Tie; Model Severely Underestimated NY
The New York Giants and Washington Commanders finished in a 27-27 tie Sunday, a result that defied both pregame projections and market consensus in dramatic fashion. Matrix's model projected a…
View Game →Model Underestimated Pittsburgh in Comfortable Win Over Indianapolis
The Pittsburgh Steelers' 34-22 victory over Indianapolis on Sunday was more decisive than pregame projections suggested, though the model correctly identified Pittsburgh as the favorite. Before…
View Game →Jets Model Projection Holds as NYJ Edges Cleveland Despite Scoring Underperformance
The New York Jets defeated Cleveland 17–12 in Week 5, a result that validated the pregame model's directional call but exposed limitations in offensive execution on both sides. Before kickoff, the…
View Game →MIN beats NO as model's close call plays out closer than expected
Minnesota's 23-13 win over New Orleans matched the market's pregame read but diverged sharply from what the model projected would happen inside the game itself. The model assigned Minnesota a 57%…
View Game →GB's 24-Point Win Over CHI Defied Model and Market Alike
Green Bay's 31-7 victory over Chicago on Sunday was an upset by both analytical and betting measures—and the magnitude of the gap between projection and result was substantial. Pre-kickoff, Matrix's…
View Game →Model Badly Underestimated New England in 28-Point Win Over Las Vegas
The model projected New England to beat Las Vegas by 3.5 points with a 61% win probability heading into Week 5. The market agreed on the spread, setting it at exactly 3.5 points in favor of the…
View Game →Model's 7-Point Cincinnati Edge Held as Bengals Beat Dolphins
The model's pregame projection proved accurate in Week 5 as Cincinnati defeated Miami 31-24, matching the expected margin of 7 points almost exactly. Before kickoff, the model favored Cincinnati…
View Game →Model underestimated Houston's dominance; Texans crush Titans by 23
The model projected Houston to win by 6.5 points with a 69% win probability, matching the market's 6.5-point spread. What unfolded was a much more decisive outcome: the Texans won 26–3, a 23-point…
View Game →JAX holds off PHI in close call model saw coming from distance
Jacksonville's 19-17 win over Philadelphia played out almost exactly as the model feared: tighter than expected, but in the direction the model predicted. Before kickoff, the model projected…
View Game →Model Missed Badly on TB-DAL: Upset Win Widens Projection Gap
Tampa Bay's 24-16 victory over Dallas was a decisive upset that exposed a significant flaw in the pregame projection. The model gave the Buccaneers just a 24% win probability and expected Dallas to…
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