Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers — Win Probability

Denver edges LAC as model projection holds up in 6-point win

Denver's 23-17 victory over Los Angeles on Sunday played out almost exactly as the model predicted before kickoff, with the Broncos winning by a margin that aligned closely with pregame expectations.

The model projected Denver to win with a 60% probability and score 22.5 points to the Chargers' 19, implying an expected margin of 3.5 points. The market agreed on the direction—Denver was favored at a 3.5-point spread—but the actual result deviated by 2.5 points from that central projection. Denver won 23-17, a six-point margin.

That gap between the expected 3.5-point margin and the actual 6-point result represents a modest miss. The model was directionally correct and the confidence level (60% win probability) proved well-calibrated for a game that stayed relatively close but ultimately resolved in Denver's favor. The Broncos outscored their projection slightly and held Los Angeles to nearly their expected total, suggesting the model's read on both offenses was reasonable.

Denver improved to 3-2 with the win. Los Angeles, meanwhile, fell to 0-5, marking a season that has not materialized as the model or market anticipated entering Week 5. The Chargers' offensive output of 17 points slightly exceeded the model's 19-point projection, though the gap was negligible.

The model's 60% confidence in Denver proved appropriate for a game that was competitive but ultimately decidable. A six-point final margin in an NFL game, given pregame uncertainty, represents normal variance from a 3.5-point projection rather than a significant miscalculation. This game exemplifies how projection systems can call the winner correctly while the precise margin remains subject to in-game execution and chance.