Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots — Win Probability

Model Badly Underestimated New England in 28-Point Win Over Las Vegas

The model projected New England to beat Las Vegas by 3.5 points with a 61% win probability heading into Week 5. The market agreed on the spread, setting it at exactly 3.5 points in favor of the Patriots. Neither assessment came close to reality.

New England won 45–17, a 28-point margin of victory. That represents a 24.5-point miss on the expected margin—the Patriots outperformed the projection by roughly seven times the anticipated spread.

The model's expected score was New England 24.5, Las Vegas 21. The actual result was 45–17. New England scored 20.5 more points than projected; Las Vegas scored 4 fewer. This was not a narrow miss or a close call adjusted by late-game variance. This was a blowout that the model failed to anticipate at any meaningful level.

While the model correctly identified New England as the favorite with a 61% win probability, that confidence level severely underweighted what actually transpired on the field. A win projection in the low 60s typically reflects a close, competitive game—not a 28-point rout. The gap between "slight favorite" and "dominant" was enormous.

Both teams finished the week at 3–2, but the margin of victory tells the real story of the matchup. The model and market both signaled a tightly contested game between evenly matched opponents. Instead, New England delivered a performance that was substantially better than any pregame metric suggested. For a site built on factual accuracy, this represents a significant gap between simulation and outcome—one that warrants examination of what the model missed in its Week 5 assessment of this division matchup.