Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability

Model's 7-Point Cincinnati Edge Held as Bengals Beat Dolphins

The model's pregame projection proved accurate in Week 5 as Cincinnati defeated Miami 31-24, matching the expected margin of 7 points almost exactly.

Before kickoff, the model favored Cincinnati with a 70% win probability and projected a final score of 25.7-18.7. The market lined the game identically, setting Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite. Both the model and the betting market were calibrated to the same outcome.

Cincinnati's actual 31 points exceeded the expected 25.7 by 5.3 points, while Miami's 24 fell short of the projected 18.7 by 5.3 points in the opposite direction. The final margin of 7 points matched the expected margin precisely, even though both teams scored higher than anticipated. This is a rare occurrence—when both sides exceed their projections by similar amounts, the model's margin projection can remain accurate despite the individual score predictions being off.

The result was not an upset. Cincinnati entered as the favored team with a 70% win probability and delivered the expected outcome. The Bengals improved to 3-2 with the victory, while Miami fell to 0-5.

This game represents the model functioning as designed: making a clear directional call with appropriate confidence, then seeing that call validated by the actual result. The 7-point margin neither overstated nor understated Cincinnati's advantage. The model correctly identified which team would win and by approximately how much, with no meaningful gap between projection and reality. For a season where Miami began 0-5, the model's assessment of Cincinnati's superiority proved neither generous nor harsh—simply accurate.