Week 2 Recaps
68.8% Week 2: Model and Market Both Stumbled on Five Upsets
The model went 11-5 straight-up this week, matching the published market's 68.8% accuracy—a 6.2-point dip from the model's season-to-date 75% baseline. More telling: neither the model nor the market…
Read More →Rams exceeded projection in dominant win over Giants
The Los Angeles Rams' 28-6 victory over the New York Giants on Sunday played out almost nothing like the model expected, despite correctly identifying LA as the likely winner. Pregame, the model…
View Game →KC's Close Call: Model Projected 5.7-Point Win, Got 3 Instead
Kansas City's 33-30 victory over Indianapolis on Sunday was the outcome the model expected—a Chiefs win with 67% win probability pregame—but the margin fell short of the projection by 2.7…
View Game →Dallas dominates projection in 37-20 rout of Washington
The model called Dallas to win, but not like this. Before kickoff, the projection system gave the Cowboys a 62% win probability with an expected final score of 27.2–23.3—a margin of just 3.9 points.…
View Game →49ers dominate Dolphins as model underestimated San Francisco's edge
The 49ers' 35-13 win over Miami on Sunday played out as expected in direction—San Francisco was favored and won decisively—but with considerably more force than the pregame model…
View Game →Seahawks dominate Cardinals; model underestimated Seattle's margin
Seattle's 31-7 win over Arizona was not an upset—the model correctly identified the Seahawks as the likely winner—but it was a significantly larger victory than the pregame projection…
View Game →Denver Beats Jacksonville as Model Calls the Winner, Misses the Margin
Denver's 20-13 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday delivered the result the model projected but with considerably more separation than expected. The pregame simulation gave the Broncos a 58% win…
View Game →Raiders' Upset Win Over Chargers Defied Model and Market Alike
Las Vegas came to Los Angeles as a decided underdog on every metric—the model gave them just a 31% win probability pregame, while the market had Los Angeles favored by 6.5 points. The simulation…
View Game →Cleveland's 23-19 Upset Over Tampa Bay Defies Model Projection
The Cleveland Browns delivered a stunning 23-19 victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday, a result that caught the model significantly off guard. Pre-kickoff, the projection gave Cleveland just a 26% win…
View Game →Eagles' 4-point win narrower than model projected in Week 2 over Titans
Philadelphia's 24-20 victory over Tennessee was a close call that fell short of the model's pregame expectations, though not by a dramatic margin. Before kickoff, the model projected the Eagles…
View Game →MIN's Upset Win Over CHI Defied Model Projection by 10.5 Points
Minnesota's 9-3 victory over Chicago was an upset by every measure: the model projected a 4.5-point loss, the market favored Chicago by 4.5 points, and the Vikings' 37% pregame win probability meant…
View Game →Carolina's 31-Point Rout of Atlanta Blows Past Model's Modest 2.6-Point Projection
The Carolina Panthers dominated Atlanta 34-3 on Sunday, a 31-point victory that bore almost no resemblance to what the pregame model anticipated. Before kickoff, the analytics projection called for a…
View Game →Cincinnati upsets Houston as model underestimated Bengals by 16.5 points
Cincinnati's 20-6 victory over Houston in Week 2 was a clear upset, and the model's pregame projection fell substantially short of capturing how decisively the Bengals would play. Before kickoff,…
View Game →Saints' 24-17 Upset Over Ravens Exposes Major Model Miss
New Orleans pulled off a 24-17 road upset over Baltimore on Sunday, a result that deviated sharply from both the pregame projection and market consensus. The model had given the Saints only a 25%…
View Game →Model Underestimated New England Dominance in Blowout Over Pittsburgh
The model projected a New England victory with a 5.4-point margin and gave the Patriots a 66% win probability before Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. The market agreed on the direction—New England…
View Game →Model Nails GB-NYJ: Packers' 3-Point Win Matched Projection Perfectly
Green Bay's 20-17 victory over New York on Sunday was a textbook case of a model projection holding up under game conditions. The Matrix simulation had projected a 23.8-20.8 Packers win—a 3-point…
View Game →Buffalo's Win Margin Exceeded Model Projection by 4.5 Points
Buffalo defeated Detroit 41-31 on Sunday, a 10-point victory that was larger than both the model's pregame expectation and the betting market's consensus. Pre-kickoff, the Matrix model projected…
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