Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos — Win Probability

Denver Beats Jacksonville as Model Calls the Winner, Misses the Margin

Denver's 20-13 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday delivered the result the model projected but with considerably more separation than expected. The pregame simulation gave the Broncos a 58% win probability and expected them to win by 2.5 points—exactly aligned with the market's published 2.5-point spread. What actually happened was a 7-point Denver victory, meaning the Broncos outperformed the projection by 4.5 points.

The model's expected scoring paint a narrow game: Denver was projected to score 24 points, Jacksonville 21.5. The actual outcome—20-13—saw both teams underperform those benchmarks. Denver fell four points short of its projection; Jacksonville missed by 8.5. That represents a wider scoring collapse than the model anticipated, particularly on the Jacksonville side.

What matters most: the model correctly identified Denver as the winner despite assigning them only a slim 58% probability of victory. The Broncos were the market favorite, and they delivered the expected outcome. The miss on margin size is meaningful but not dramatic—a 4.5-point variance in a 7-point game suggests the model's input on team strength and Vegas's pricing were in the same neighborhood.

The spread disagreement didn't materialize because Denver won by more than the line suggested. From a predictive standpoint, this is a qualified success: the model made the right call on winner and winner probability, but underestimated Denver's dominance. Whether that stems from undervaluing Denver, overvaluing Jacksonville, or simply encountering normal variance in a low-probability outcome is a question the model's creators will parse from larger sample sizes. One game is data; a pattern requires several.