New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams — Win Probability

Rams exceeded projection in dominant win over Giants

The Los Angeles Rams' 28-6 victory over the New York Giants on Sunday played out almost nothing like the model expected, despite correctly identifying LA as the likely winner.

Pregame, the model projected a 27.5-21 Rams win—a 6.5-point margin—giving Los Angeles a 69% win probability. The market agreed on the spread, setting it at exactly 6.5 points. Both forecasts pointed to a competitive game that could plausibly go either way, albeit with LA favored.

The actual result was substantially different. The Rams won 28-6, a 22-point margin. That gap between the expected 6.5-point spread and the actual 22-point result represents a 15.5-point miss for the model's scoring projection—a significant underestimation of LA's dominance.

This was not an upset; the model correctly identified the Rams as the more likely winner. But the magnitude of the win far exceeded what the simulation anticipated. The Rams scored just 0.5 more points than projected, but the Giants scored 15 fewer points than expected. New York's 6 points fell well short of the model's 21-point projection, suggesting the offense performed far worse than anticipated or that LA's defense played at a level the pregame simulation undervalued.

For a model whose brand is factual precision, this represents a meaningful miss on margin prediction while remaining correct on winner selection. The projection captured the directional outcome but substantially underestimated Los Angeles's performance advantage. Whether that underestimation stemmed from underrating the Rams' defensive capability or overestimating the Giants' offensive floor, the numbers show a clear gap between what was modeled and what materialized on the field.