Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers — Win Probability

49ers dominate Dolphins as model underestimated San Francisco's edge

The 49ers' 35-13 win over Miami on Sunday played out as expected in direction—San Francisco was favored and won decisively—but with considerably more force than the pregame model anticipated.

Matrix's simulation projected a 49ers victory with 84% win probability, aligned with the market's 13-point spread. The model expected San Francisco to score 28.8 points and Miami 15.7, for an expected margin of 13.1 points. The market and model were in close agreement on both the outcome and the scale of the advantage.

What actually happened was a more pronounced rout. The 49ers scored 35 points—6.2 more than projected—while holding Miami to 13, which came in 2.7 below the forecast. The final margin of 22 points exceeded the model's expected margin by 8.9 points, a substantial difference that represents 68% more separation than anticipated.

This was not an upset. San Francisco's win probability made them clear favorites, and they delivered on that expectation. But the magnitude of dominance fell outside the model's confidence band in a meaningful way. The 49ers' offensive output was sharply better than the simulation suggested, while their defense proved considerably more stifling than the model's 15.7-point allowance indicated.

For a game with this win probability (84%), a 9-point swing in margin is notable but not rare—it falls within the natural variance of football outcomes. The model correctly identified the likely winner and even the general shape of victory. However, it undersized how thoroughly San Francisco would control this matchup, suggesting the pregame projection left room for the 49ers' actual performance level.