Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans — Win Probability

Eagles' 4-point win narrower than model projected in Week 2 over Titans

Philadelphia's 24-20 victory over Tennessee was a close call that fell short of the model's pregame expectations, though not by a dramatic margin.

Before kickoff, the model projected the Eagles would win by 6.9 points, with an expected final score of 23.2-16.3. The market agreed on Philadelphia as the favorite, setting a 7-point spread that aligned closely with the model's projection.

The Eagles did win as expected, but the actual margin—4 points—was 2.9 points smaller than projected. Philadelphia scored 24 points, which matched the model's forecast almost exactly. Tennessee, however, scored 20 instead of the projected 16.3, a difference of 3.7 points. The Titans' outperformance on offense was the primary driver of the tighter-than-expected result.

The model assigned Philadelphia a 70% win probability heading into the game, and the Eagles delivered on that expectation by securing the win. The outcome was not an upset—Philadelphia was the clear favorite and won—but the margin compression suggests the model may have slightly overestimated the Eagles' ability to pull away, or underestimated Tennessee's offensive capacity in this particular matchup.

For a game where the favorite wins, a 2.9-point miss on margin is a modest deviation. The model correctly identified the winner and the general competitive range. The 4-point final result fell within a reasonable range of the 6.9-point projection, indicating the model read the matchup's overall competitive balance reasonably well, even if it overstated the Eagles' margin of control. Philadelphia improved to 2-0; Tennessee fell to 0-2.