Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears — Win Probability

MIN's Upset Win Over CHI Defied Model Projection by 10.5 Points

Minnesota's 9-3 victory over Chicago was an upset by every measure: the model projected a 4.5-point loss, the market favored Chicago by 4.5 points, and the Vikings' 37% pregame win probability meant oddsmakers and the simulation both leaned heavily toward the Bears.

The model's expected score told the story of that confidence in Chicago: it projected the Bears to win 26.5-22, a comfortable margin. Instead, Minnesota held Chicago to just 3 points while scoring 9—a 6-point win that inverted the entire prediction.

The gap between projection and result was substantial. The model expected Chicago to win by 4.5 points. Minnesota won by 6. That's a 10.5-point swing from expectation, a meaningful miss that reflects how thoroughly both the pregame model and market misread this matchup.

What makes this worth noting: this wasn't a close call that fell the other way. The simulation had Minnesota's win probability at 37%, meaning it assigned nearly two-to-one odds to a Bears victory. The market matched that view with a 4.5-point spread favoring Chicago. Both were wrong in the same direction, and wrong by a margin that suggests the model underestimated Minnesota's defensive capability or overestimated Chicago's offensive output—or both.

A 9-3 final score is low for both teams, but the disparity matters: Minnesota's defense held the Bears well below the model's 26.5-point projection. This wasn't a game where the model nailed the direction but missed the magnitude slightly. It was a game where the fundamental outcome contradicted the pregame read by a full touchdown-plus-conversion in a low-scoring environment.

Minnesota moved to 2-0. The model will need to recalibrate its view of this matchup.