Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals — Win Probability

Seahawks dominate Cardinals; model underestimated Seattle's margin

Seattle's 31-7 win over Arizona was not an upset—the model correctly identified the Seahawks as the likely winner—but it was a significantly larger victory than the pregame projection suggested.

Before kickoff, the model assigned Seattle a 62% win probability and expected a 4-point margin (22.8-18.8 final score). The market agreed on the direction, posting a 4-point spread favoring the Seahawks. That alignment between model and market line was a sign of consensus confidence, but neither captured what would actually unfold.

Seattle won by 24 points, more than six times the projected margin. The Seahawks scored 31, eight points above their expected total; Arizona managed only 7, a difference of nearly 12 points from the 18.8 the model projected. This was not a close miss or a marginal error—it was a substantial underestimation of Seattle's dominance.

The gap between expected margin and actual margin (4 vs. 24) signals the model read this as a routine divisional win with normal volatility. Instead, it became a blowout. Whether that reflects Arizona's performance falling significantly short of projection, Seattle's execution exceeding expectations, or some combination of both cannot be determined from the model's pregame numbers alone.

For the Seahawks, the result improves them to 2-0. For Arizona at 1-1, the loss was substantially worse than the pregame odds suggested it might be. The model's directional read was sound, but its margin forecast missed by 20 points—a meaningful gap that places this game in the category of underestimated outcomes, despite correctly picking the winner.