Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings — Win Probability

Model projected Minnesota by 10.1, got a 5-point result instead

The Minnesota Vikings' 15-10 victory over Miami on Sunday confirmed the model's pregame read on the matchup itself — it had Minnesota as a 77% win probability favorite — but significantly overestimated the scoring environment.

The model projected Minnesota to win by 10.1 points with an expected final score of 24.3 to 14.2. The market priced Minnesota as a 10-point favorite. Minnesota won by 5, final score 15-10, missing the model's margin projection by 5.1 points in the direction of lower scoring.

This was not an upset. The Vikings were favored and won. But the gap between expected and actual scoring tells a specific story: the model anticipated a more offensive game than what unfolded. It projected 38.5 total points; the teams combined for 25.

The model called the winner and the direction correctly. Its win probability assessment — heavily favoring Minnesota — aligned with the actual result. But the scoring shortfall suggests either defensive performance exceeded expectation, offensive execution fell short of projection, or both. The model's 10.1-point margin was closer to the market's 10-point line than to the actual 5-point outcome, indicating the market and the model were aligned on a similar but ultimately optimistic view of point production.

For a model that emphasized Minnesota as a strong favorite, the failure to bridge the gap between a 10-point projection and a 5-point result represents a moderate miss on precision. The model was right about who would win and by how much relative direction, but significantly wrong about the pace and efficiency of the game itself. This type of miss — correct winner, incorrect margin due to scoring environment — is distinct from a blown call on the outcome.