Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability

Model's GB-TB Projection Proved Nearly Exact in 17-14 Packers Win

Green Bay's 17-14 victory over Tampa Bay played out almost exactly as the model had simulated it, a rare alignment between pregame projection and final result that suggests the model's read on both teams was sound.

Before kickoff, the model expected Green Bay to score 20.8 points and Tampa Bay 17.8, projecting a Packers win by 3.1 points. The actual margin was 3 points—a variance of just 0.1. Green Bay finished with 17 points and Tampa Bay with 14, each team landing within 4 points of its projected total.

The model assigned Green Bay a 59 percent win probability, reflecting confidence but not dominance. That matched the market's view: the Packers were favored by exactly 3 points, the same as the model's expected margin. There was no gap between the model and Vegas, and no upset.

What actually happened aligned with what should have happened. Green Bay won, as projected. The score compression—both teams finished below their simulated totals—did not alter the outcome or break the model's directional call. Neither team exceeded expectations enough to create a surprise result.

For a Week 4 matchup, this represents clean forecasting. The model identified Green Bay as the better team, quantified the edge at 3 points, and that edge held through 60 minutes of football. Tampa Bay's 0-4 record after the loss and Green Bay's 2-2 record reflect their underlying quality separation, which the projection captured accurately.

This game offers no lesson in model failure or edge-finding; it's a baseline: the numbers worked.