Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans — Win Probability

Buffalo's 36-31 Win Over Houston Far Exceeds Model's Modest Projection

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Houston Texans 36-31 in Week 1, a result that significantly outpaced what the Matrix model projected before kickoff.

The model expected a tight game: Buffalo 23, Houston 21.5, with a projected margin of 1.5 points favoring the Bills. That aligned exactly with the market's opening spread of Buffalo -1.5, indicating the model and the betting public were in agreement on a nearly even matchup. The model assigned Buffalo a 55% win probability—a modest edge, not a strong conviction.

What actually happened was a higher-scoring affair that played out closer than expected. The Bills won by 5 points, which exceeded the 1.5-point projection by 3.5 points in Buffalo's direction. Both teams scored significantly more than modeled: Buffalo put up 36 instead of the projected 23 (13 points above), and Houston scored 31 instead of 21.5 (9.5 points above).

This was not an upset—the model correctly identified Buffalo as the likely winner—but it was a clear miss on game flow and scoring volume. The actual margin was 3.5 points wider than expected, placing this outcome in the category of moderate projection error. The Bills' win probability was modest (55%), so the model wasn't blindsided by a Buffalo victory, but it significantly underestimated how much offensive firepower both teams would display.

Neither team's total came close to the model's forecast, suggesting the projection may have underestimated offensive efficiency or overestimated defensive performance by both squads. The win for Buffalo was correct; the shape of the game was not.