Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts — Win Probability

Ravens Demolish Colts as Model Underestimated Baltimore's Firepower

Baltimore's 41-23 victory over Indianapolis was a decisive win, but not the one the pregame projection anticipated. The model gave the Ravens a 59% win probability with an expected margin of 3 points—essentially a coin flip in a tight matchup. The market agreed on the favorite, setting Baltimore at a 3-point spread, aligning with the projection's expected outcome.

Instead, the Ravens won by 18 points, scoring 41 against an expected 25.3 and holding the Colts to 23 against a projected 22.3. Baltimore exceeded its simulation by 15.7 points; Indianapolis nearly matched expectations but fell short by 0.3 in a game that got away from them early.

This wasn't an upset—the model correctly identified Baltimore as the favored team—but it was a significant miss on magnitude. The pregame simulation projected a three-point game. The actual result was an 18-point blowout. That 15-point gap between expected and actual margin represents a substantial underestimation of Baltimore's dominance.

The model's 59% win probability for the Ravens proved directionally correct but didn't capture the degree of separation that emerged on the field. A three-point expected margin in a game that became a two-score difference suggests the simulation either undervalued Baltimore's offensive capacity or overestimated Indianapolis's ability to stay competitive.

For a projection built to reflect game balance, this result shows where the pregame assessment fell short. The Ravens weren't just favored—they were significantly better. The model got the winner right but misjudged how thoroughly Baltimore would control the game. In Week 1, that distinction matters for understanding how well the projection truly read this matchup.