Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons — Win Probability

Chicago's 8-Point Win Over Atlanta Significantly Outpaced Model Projection

The Chicago Bears' 31-23 victory over Atlanta on Sunday played out as a more decisive result than either the model or the market anticipated. Chicago entered with a 53% win probability and a projected expected score of 26.3 points. Atlanta was projected to score 25.3, suggesting an expected margin of just 1 point. The market line reflected that razor-thin edge, installing Chicago as a 1-point favorite.

The actual outcome—an 8-point Bears victory—represented a 7-point gap from the model's expected margin of 1. Chicago scored 31 points, 4.7 more than projected. Atlanta managed 23, falling 2.3 short of its 25.3 expectation. Both teams deviated from projections, but the Bears' overperformance and the Falcons' underperformance compounded in the same direction.

This was not an upset. Chicago's 53% pregame probability correctly identified them as the favorite, and they won. However, the magnitude of their performance edge was meaningfully larger than the model suggested. A 7-point miss between expected and actual margin represents a substantial deviation from projection, even when the outcome direction is correct.

The model's 1-point expected margin was notably tight relative to what transpired. It captured Chicago as the likely winner but significantly underestimated how much separation would develop. Both the model and market were more cautious about the Bears' advantage than Sunday's play warranted. This gap suggests either the pregame data undervalued Chicago's capabilities or Atlanta's weaknesses, or the Falcons simply underperformed their expectation by a meaningful amount. The win moved Chicago to 4-2 and left Atlanta at 2-4.