Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys — Win Probability

Baltimore's 34-31 Win Over Dallas Validates Model Projection

Baltimore defeated Dallas 34-31 in Week 3, a result that aligned closely with pregame expectations despite the late-game tension suggested by the final margin.

Matrix's simulation projected Baltimore to win by 3.5 points with a 60% win probability entering Sunday. The market agreed, posting a 3.5-point Baltimore favorite. The Ravens won by exactly 3 points, making this one of the model's most accurate calls of the week.

The model's expected score was Baltimore 28.5, Dallas 25. The actual result was Baltimore 34, Dallas 31—a 5.5-point swing above the projection for Baltimore and a 6-point swing above for Dallas. Both teams outscored their simulated benchmarks, suggesting the game played out higher-scoring than anticipated. Still, the margin itself—the metric that matters most for win projection—landed just half a point away from the forecast.

This was not an upset. Baltimore entered as the projected favorite and won as the projected favorite, with the win probability (60%) reflecting a lean toward the Ravens but not overwhelming confidence. The close final score might suggest a tighter game than the model expected, but the three-point outcome is exactly what the projection centered on.

For Baltimore, the win improved their record to 2-1. Dallas fell to 1-2. The model's strength here was in the directional call and margin of victory despite both teams exceeding their point projections. The 0.5-point miss on expected margin is within normal variance for NFL game simulation and represents a well-calibrated projection that proved accurate in the contest's outcome.