New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability

Jaguars Demolish Patriots; Model's Projection Missed by 26 Points

Jacksonville's 35-6 victory over New England was neither close nor unexpected—but it was far more decisive than the pregame numbers suggested.

The model projected a Jacksonville win with 59% probability and an expected final score of 24.2 to 21.2, a margin of just 3 points. The market agreed Jacksonville was the better team, posting a 3-point spread in their favor. Both assessments treated this as a competitive divisional matchup.

What happened instead was a rout. The Jaguars won by 29 points, more than nine times the projected margin. Jacksonville scored 35—11 points above projection. New England managed just 6—15 points below what the model expected. The gap between expected and actual margin (3 vs. 29) reveals a projection that significantly underestimated Jacksonville's dominance and New England's struggles.

This was not an upset. Jacksonville entered as the favored team and won decisively. The model correctly identified the winner but substantially misjudged the scale of the performance gap. A 3-point projection that resulted in a 29-point margin represents a major miss in calibration, not in direction.

For a model whose core function is predicting not just who wins but by how much, this outcome raises questions about what factors—offensive execution, defensive efficiency, team strength relative to expectation—were underweighted in the pregame simulation. The Jaguars improved to 2-1; New England fell to 1-2. Both records align with the competitive expectations the projection set, but the actual game played out with far greater separation between the teams than either the model or market line suggested was likely.