Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability

Chiefs' 14-point win over Dolphins wider than model projected

Kansas City's 24-10 victory over Miami played out largely as expected—the Chiefs won as the heavy favorite—but the final margin exceeded the model's pregame projection by 4 points.

Before kickoff, the model assigned Kansas City a 77% win probability and projected a final score of 27.7-17.7, implying a 10-point margin. The market lined the game at Kansas City -10, aligning closely with the model's expected outcome. Neither the model nor the market saw an upset coming.

What actually happened: Kansas City won 24-10, a 14-point margin. The Chiefs scored 3.7 points fewer than projected, while Miami scored 7.7 points fewer. The discrepancy suggests both offenses underperformed the model's expectations, but Miami's shortfall was notably larger. The final result was a more decisive outcome than anticipated.

The 4-point gap between the expected margin (10) and the actual margin (14) represents a moderate miss for the pregame simulation. The model's directional call was correct—it identified Kansas City as a clear favorite with a strong probability of victory—but it underestimated how thoroughly the Chiefs would control this matchup.

The result fell well within the range of variance that pregame projections encounter. The model did not fail to identify the likely winner or misread the competitive gap between the teams. It simply underestimated the efficiency gap that manifested once the game was played. With Kansas City improving to 3-0 and Miami falling to 0-3, the model's ranking of Kansas City as a 77% probability winner proved appropriately calibrated to the actual performance differential, even if the specific score margin proved conservative.