Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos — Win Probability

Denver Stuns LA With 30-26 Upset Win, Model Missed Pregame Read

Denver entered Sunday's matchup against Los Angeles as the underdog in both the model's pregame projection and the betting market. The market favored the Rams by 1 point, while the model gave Denver only a 47% win probability—essentially a coin flip, but with a slight lean toward LA.

The model's expected scoring told a similar story: it projected Los Angeles to outscore Denver 22.2 to 21.2, a 1-point margin in LA's favor. That matched the market consensus. Denver, however, delivered a different result.

The Broncos won 30-26, claiming a 4-point victory that qualifies as an upset by both the betting line and the model's pregame assessment. The gap between projection and reality is significant: Denver's expected margin was -1 (a 1-point loss) while the actual margin was +4 (a 4-point win). That's a 5-point swing in Denver's favor relative to the model's pregame read.

In raw score terms, Denver exceeded its expected output by 8.8 points (30 vs. 21.2 projected), while Los Angeles fell short of its projection by 4.2 points (26 vs. 22.2 expected). The Broncos' offensive performance was the primary driver of the miss.

This represents a notable miss for the model, though it falls short of a complete blowout miscalculation. The model wasn't confident in either team—the 47% win probability reflected genuine uncertainty—but it still underestimated Denver's ability to execute against LA. The Broncos' 4-point win improved their record to 2-1, while the Rams fell to 1-2, making Sunday a decisive swing game that the model failed to anticipate.