CLE80%
Mon 8:00 PM ET
20%CHI
← back to predictions

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

Mon 8:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
5-6
80%
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
1-8
20%
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 124.8 – Chicago Bulls 114.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Chicago Bulls, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
76%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
7%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
94% over6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over15% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
49% over51% under
O/U LINE 250
29% over71% under
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Evan MobleyPF
18.4
James HardenPG
15.7
Jarrett AllenC
13.3
Meleek ThomasSG
12.3
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
19.3
Caleb WilsonPF
19.3
Matas BuzelisSF
13.6
Jalen SmithC
11.7
Josh GiddeyPG
10.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
117.00
10th / 30
Points
CHI
112.67
16th / 30
CLE
47.60
5th / 30
Rebounds
CHI
43.67
17th / 30
CLE
27.00
T-8th / 30
Assists
CHI
25.22
22nd / 30
CLE
100.50
7th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHI
103.45
2nd / 30
CLE
54.51%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHI
48.71%
29th / 30
CLE
11.71%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHI
13.08%
17th / 30
CLE
25.56%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHI
27.98%
15th / 30
CLE
.283
17th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHI
.357
4th / 30
CLE
116.42
11th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
108.91
26th / 30
CLE
113.53
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
125.02
30th / 30
CLE
+2.89
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHI
-16.11
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.94%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.40%29th/30
15.324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0627th/30
42.097th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.719th/30
36.41%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.18%30th/30
25.7721st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.1019th/30
47.3622nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.9424th/30
54.41%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.61%8th/30
18.9118th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.524th/30
25.2715th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.253rd/30
74.80%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.26%21st/30
11.4418th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1010th/30
35.922nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.1128th/30
7.1627th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8420th/30
5.479th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2610th/30
13.334th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2517th/30
21.398th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.5223rd/30
Opponent
43.92%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.51%27th/30
13.2316th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.3924th/30
39.2018th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.419th/30
33.76%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.53%29th/30
27.7617th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.4326th/30
54.1328th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.9226th/30
51.29%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.58%17th/30
18.319th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.9826th/30
23.287th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.8627th/30
78.63%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.98%13th/30
12.7420th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.1827th/30
33.3321st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7225th/30
7.064th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2714th/30
3.884th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7310th/30
12.3430th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7527th/30
20.605th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0918th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service