OKC73%
Mon 7:30 PM ET
27%IND
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

Mon 7:30 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
8-2
73%
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
3-8
27%
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 115.3 – Indiana Pacers 108.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Indiana Pacers, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
68%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
77% over23% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under
O/U LINE 230
38% over62% under
O/U LINE 240
20% over80% under
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
29.9
Ajay MitchellSG
18.9
Jalen WilliamsSF
13.7
Jared McCainSG
12.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
12.0
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Pascal SiakamPF
21.4
Andrew NembhardSG
17.8
Aaron NesmithSF
12.1
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
8.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
112.20
19th / 30
Points
IND
110.30
22nd / 30
OKC
47.30
6th / 30
Rebounds
IND
42.10
T-23rd / 30
OKC
23.10
29th / 30
Assists
IND
27.00
T-8th / 30
OKC
97.79
24th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
99.60
12th / 30
OKC
51.86%
22nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
53.40%
16th / 30
OKC
10.66%
1st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
12.92%
14th / 30
OKC
26.27%
17th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
20.97%
30th / 30
OKC
.230
27th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.272
20th / 30
OKC
114.74
17th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
110.74
22nd / 30
OKC
106.56
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
114.65
16th / 30
OKC
+8.18
5th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-3.92
19th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.67%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.25%13th/30
11.5625th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4521st/30
33.1327th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.1516th/30
34.88%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.63%25th/30
31.093rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8116th/30
60.231st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.8918th/30
51.61%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.88%4th/30
17.9020th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.7722nd/30
21.4826th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.6921st/30
83.33%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.00%22nd/30
11.6617th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.5430th/30
36.711st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7313th/30
8.2816th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.2326th/30
6.036th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8218th/30
12.271st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4611th/30
19.231st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.886th/30
Opponent
40.75%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.17%13th/30
14.2120th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.9618th/30
43.6729th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.3619th/30
32.55%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.46%21st/30
23.422nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9111th/30
48.689th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1016th/30
48.11%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.65%10th/30
17.085th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9814th/30
21.886th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.898th/30
78.04%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.41%23rd/30
13.0921st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2517th/30
32.7218th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.9429th/30
6.341st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5317th/30
5.1118th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.629th/30
14.3218th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.9623rd/30
21.178th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8916th/30
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