DAL74%
Sun 7:00 PM ET
26%UTAH
← back to predictions

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz — Win Probability

Sun 7:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
7-4
74%
VS
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
1-9
26%
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 117.2 – Utah Jazz 110.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out

Margin of Victory — Utah Jazz (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Utah Jazz, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
68%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
82% over18% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
24.0
Kyrie IrvingPG
21.4
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.8
Daniel GaffordC
9.8
Max ChristieSG
6.1
UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
21.1
Lauri MarkkanenPF
18.0
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
16.3
Darryn PetersonSG
14.8
Ace BaileySF
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
113.90
15th / 30
Points
UTAH
106.20
29th / 30
DAL
44.80
12th / 30
Rebounds
UTAH
45.10
10th / 30
DAL
26.40
16th / 30
Assists
UTAH
24.30
26th / 30
DAL
97.96
22nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
UTAH
101.03
5th / 30
DAL
54.30%
12th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
UTAH
49.54%
28th / 30
DAL
13.53%
19th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
UTAH
14.63%
26th / 30
DAL
30.12%
7th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
UTAH
25.84%
18th / 30
DAL
.257
25th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
UTAH
.289
14th / 30
DAL
116.27
12th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
105.12
29th / 30
DAL
111.37
10th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
116.70
24th / 30
DAL
+4.90
13th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
UTAH
-11.58
26th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.40%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.97%27th/30
12.4520th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.3826th/30
36.8519th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.4423rd/30
33.80%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.12%26th/30
30.324th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.8420th/30
53.399th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1815th/30
56.79%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.48%28th/30
18.2719th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3017th/30
23.1724th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0416th/30
78.85%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.08%17th/30
13.0711th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1815th/30
32.6715th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4716th/30
8.8812th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.0328th/30
5.927th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.245th/30
15.7220th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.7326th/30
22.8718th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.1621st/30
Opponent
44.67%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.42%14th/30
11.544th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.088th/30
37.6716th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.854th/30
30.62%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.67%22nd/30
29.0923rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.2213th/30
53.2924th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6621st/30
54.60%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.69%7th/30
18.5810th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
26.0330th/30
25.1115th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.9830th/30
73.98%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.03%28th/30
13.9926th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.098th/30
30.325th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.9428th/30
8.6818th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7025th/30
5.3121st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3522nd/30
15.2116th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2519th/30
20.826th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.3525th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service