MIL11%
Sat 1:00 PM ET
89%PHI
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

Sat 1:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
1-9
11%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
9-2
89%
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 107.0 – Philadelphia 76ers 120.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Philadelphia 76ers, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
16%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
30%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
83% over17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
21.4
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
15.2
Kyle KuzmaPF
11.6
Ryan RollinsPG
10.7
Brayden BurriesSG
10.5
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
26.9
Jaylen BrownSF
22.3
Joel EmbiidC
17.9
LeBron JamesPF
15.6
VJ EdgecombeSG
13.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
108.40
25th / 30
Points
PHI
111.00
21st / 30
MIL
46.50
7th / 30
Rebounds
PHI
43.36
19th / 30
MIL
25.70
20th / 30
Assists
PHI
25.91
19th / 30
MIL
99.26
17th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHI
99.30
16th / 30
MIL
51.55%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHI
51.07%
26th / 30
MIL
13.92%
21st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHI
10.90%
2nd / 30
MIL
29.51%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHI
22.64%
28th / 30
MIL
.225
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHI
.292
13th / 30
MIL
109.21
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
111.78
21st / 30
MIL
122.51
28th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
108.67
5th / 30
MIL
-13.30
27th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHI
+3.11
15th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.49%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.58%23rd/30
14.719th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.6324th/30
43.932nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.1526th/30
33.49%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.05%19th/30
24.9926th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2911th/30
47.3523rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.395th/30
52.77%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.07%26th/30
15.1130th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.3213th/30
20.5528th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.1812th/30
73.53%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.62%16th/30
14.006th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.5326th/30
32.8411th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.148th/30
5.7430th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7914th/30
4.8417th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3922nd/30
16.2222nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.362nd/30
22.4712th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.619th/30
Opponent
46.42%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.50%9th/30
14.7125th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.353rd/30
41.6127th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.898th/30
35.35%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.63%3rd/30
29.1224th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5616th/30
52.7922nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5418th/30
55.15%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.46%12th/30
20.1520th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5018th/30
26.5021st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0919th/30
76.05%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.74%6th/30
14.8129th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.0814th/30
33.4523rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.9830th/30
9.9730th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.682nd/30
6.2528th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.8625th/30
12.3929th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6611th/30
19.243rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.877th/30
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