LAC12%
Thu 8:00 PM ET
88%SA
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LA Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

Thu 8:00 PM ET
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
2-7
12%
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
9-2
88%
Model expected score: LA Clippers 108.0 – San Antonio Spurs 122.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

How often each outcome happened for San Antonio Spurs, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
16%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
31%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
86% over14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
21.2
Rui HachimuraPF
14.6
Brook LopezC
14.2
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
11.1
Kris DunnSG
9.1
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
29.1
Dylan HarperSG
18.1
Stephon CastleSG
15.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
13.8
Devin VassellSG
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAC
112.44
17th / 30
Points
SA
118.40
6th / 30
LAC
40.89
27th / 30
Rebounds
SA
48.50
3rd / 30
LAC
26.56
13th / 30
Assists
SA
26.80
T-11th / 30
LAC
99.94
10th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
99.56
13th / 30
LAC
54.66%
9th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
52.41%
20th / 30
LAC
16.19%
30th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
10.99%
3rd / 30
LAC
25.74%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
28.88%
13th / 30
LAC
.294
11th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.304
9th / 30
LAC
112.51
20th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
118.92
6th / 30
LAC
116.52
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
108.58
4th / 30
LAC
-4.00
20th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+10.35
3rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.39%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.62%20th/30
14.0112th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4519th/30
36.2420th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.1621st/30
38.65%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.44%16th/30
25.2424th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.438th/30
48.3621st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.644th/30
52.18%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.89%20th/30
20.0114th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.705th/30
24.9018th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.927th/30
80.36%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.29%8th/30
10.6724th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.269th/30
30.2424th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.465th/30
9.895th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9318th/30
4.2225th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.031st/30
18.4629th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.863rd/30
22.7917th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.997th/30
Opponent
48.98%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.57%6th/30
11.905th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.3512th/30
33.803rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.551st/30
35.20%18th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.83%23rd/30
30.6930th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.1212th/30
53.1423rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.0530th/30
57.74%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.54%1st/30
19.4617th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.286th/30
26.3520th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.495th/30
73.84%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.37%26th/30
12.1215th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4511th/30
30.808th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6417th/30
9.6724th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.435th/30
4.7813th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9216th/30
15.5713th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7626th/30
21.4610th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8012th/30
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