UTAH8%
Wed 10:00 PM ET
92%LAL
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Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

Wed 10:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
1-9
8%
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
10-2
92%
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 109.4 – Los Angeles Lakers 125.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Los Angeles Lakers, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
13%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+
35%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
90% over10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
59% over41% under
O/U LINE 240
38% over62% under
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
21.1
Lauri MarkkanenPF
18.0
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
16.3
Darryn PetersonSG
14.8
Ace BaileySF
11.9
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
40.1
Austin ReavesSG
25.3
Walker KesslerC
14.4
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.1
Matisse ThybulleSF
7.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
106.20
29th / 30
Points
LAL
121.91
1st / 30
UTAH
45.10
10th / 30
Rebounds
LAL
40.27
29th / 30
UTAH
24.30
26th / 30
Assists
LAL
23.55
27th / 30
UTAH
101.03
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
98.88
19th / 30
UTAH
49.54%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
58.93%
1st / 30
UTAH
14.63%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
14.34%
25th / 30
UTAH
25.84%
18th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
28.37%
14th / 30
UTAH
.289
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.376
1st / 30
UTAH
105.12
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
123.29
1st / 30
UTAH
116.70
24th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
115.75
18th / 30
UTAH
-11.58
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+7.54
7th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.97%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.50%1st/30
11.3826th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0711th/30
35.4423rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0518th/30
32.12%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.97%4th/30
25.8420th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.0413th/30
51.1815th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.3425th/30
50.48%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.52%1st/30
19.3017th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
25.012nd/30
25.0416th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.352nd/30
77.08%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.77%11th/30
12.1815th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.0321st/30
32.4716th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.7026th/30
7.0328th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.393rd/30
6.245th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.533rd/30
16.7326th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.2723rd/30
23.1621st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.1828th/30
Opponent
45.42%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.61%15th/30
12.088th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.3528th/30
33.854th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.9123rd/30
35.67%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.53%24th/30
27.2213th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.273rd/30
52.6621st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.973rd/30
51.69%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.80%11th/30
26.0330th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1522nd/30
30.9830th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.4124th/30
84.03%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.43%5th/30
11.098th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.7924th/30
34.9428th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.861st/30
9.7025th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.8427th/30
5.3522nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.863rd/30
14.2519th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.112nd/30
24.3525th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.1028th/30
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