GS49%
Wed 9:30 PM ET
51%DAL
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Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

Wed 9:30 PM ET
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
8-3
49%
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
7-4
51%
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 115.8 – Dallas Mavericks 116.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Dallas Mavericks, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
49%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
87% over13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over27% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
31.3
Yaxel LendeborgSF
21.2
Brandin PodziemskiSG
15.8
Gui SantosPF
6.6
Will RichardSG
5.1
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
24.0
Kyrie IrvingPG
21.4
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.8
Daniel GaffordC
9.8
Max ChristieSG
6.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
GS
118.60
5th / 30
Points
DAL
113.90
15th / 30
GS
43.70
16th / 30
Rebounds
DAL
44.80
12th / 30
GS
28.20
4th / 30
Assists
DAL
26.40
16th / 30
GS
99.22
18th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
97.96
22nd / 30
GS
56.23%
2nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
54.30%
12th / 30
GS
14.29%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
13.53%
19th / 30
GS
29.58%
8th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
30.12%
7th / 30
GS
.314
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.257
25th / 30
GS
119.54
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
116.27
12th / 30
GS
114.50
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
111.37
10th / 30
GS
+5.04
12th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
+4.90
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.92%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.40%5th/30
16.132nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4520th/30
40.828th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8519th/30
39.51%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.80%21st/30
24.4928th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.324th/30
45.7627th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.399th/30
53.52%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.79%5th/30
22.176th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.2719th/30
27.219th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.1724th/30
81.48%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.85%12th/30
12.7013th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.0711th/30
31.3521st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6715th/30
9.279th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8812th/30
5.0415th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.927th/30
16.4325th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.7220th/30
22.6816th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8718th/30
Opponent
46.27%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.67%10th/30
13.3017th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.544th/30
38.7017th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.6716th/30
34.38%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.62%1st/30
27.9219th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.0923rd/30
50.3912th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.2924th/30
55.40%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.60%18th/30
18.7511th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.5810th/30
23.9910th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.1115th/30
78.15%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.98%4th/30
12.7019th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.9926th/30
30.244th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.325th/30
9.7826th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6818th/30
5.2419th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3121st/30
16.737th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2116th/30
23.7922nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.826th/30
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