MIL22%
Wed 7:00 PM ET
78%MIA
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

Wed 7:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
1-9
22%
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
4-6
78%
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 115.0 – Miami Heat 123.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Miami Heat, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
18%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
93% over7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over17% under
O/U LINE 230
66% over34% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under
O/U LINE 250
27% over73% under
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
21.4
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
15.2
Kyle KuzmaPF
11.6
Ryan RollinsPG
10.7
Brayden BurriesSG
10.5
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.5
Bam AdebayoC
18.5
Davion MitchellPG
16.2
Klay ThompsonSF
14.7
Andrew WigginsSF
8.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
108.40
25th / 30
Points
MIA
115.80
12th / 30
MIL
46.50
7th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
42.10
T-23rd / 30
MIL
25.70
20th / 30
Assists
MIA
29.20
2nd / 30
MIL
99.26
17th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
102.83
3rd / 30
MIL
51.55%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
54.34%
11th / 30
MIL
13.92%
21st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
12.93%
15th / 30
MIL
29.51%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
22.89%
27th / 30
MIL
.225
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.280
18th / 30
MIL
109.21
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
112.61
19th / 30
MIL
122.51
28th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
117.77
25th / 30
MIL
-13.30
27th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
-5.15
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.49%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.83%10th/30
14.719th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1318th/30
43.932nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.6115th/30
33.49%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.01%20th/30
24.9926th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8115th/30
47.3523rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.8219th/30
52.77%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.97%3rd/30
15.1130th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.6024th/30
20.5528th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5119th/30
73.53%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
71.83%29th/30
14.006th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.0228th/30
32.8411th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.9222nd/30
5.7430th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9717th/30
4.8417th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0614th/30
16.2222nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5912th/30
22.4712th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.325th/30
Opponent
46.42%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.83%28th/30
14.7125th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.9530th/30
41.6127th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.4522nd/30
35.35%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.42%28th/30
29.1224th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.6510th/30
52.7922nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.785th/30
55.15%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.96%25th/30
20.1520th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.634th/30
26.5021st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.494th/30
76.05%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.38%16th/30
14.8129th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.504th/30
33.4523rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7426th/30
9.9730th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0711th/30
6.2528th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2520th/30
12.3929th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8510th/30
19.243rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2420th/30
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