PHX22%
Mon 9:00 PM ET
78%DEN
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Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

Mon 9:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
3-6
22%
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
5-4
78%
Model expected score: Phoenix Suns 112.6 – Denver Nuggets 121.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Denver Nuggets, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
19%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
90% over10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under
O/U LINE 240
37% over63% under
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
25.3
Miles BridgesPF
16.9
Dillon BrooksSF
16.8
Jalen GreenSG
12.4
Khaman MaluachC
7.4
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jamal MurrayPG
24.3
Nikola JokićC
22.9
Christian BraunSG
13.5
Aaron GordonPF
12.3
Cameron JohnsonPF
10.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHX
112.38
18th / 30
Points
DEN
115.25
13th / 30
PHX
39.25
30th / 30
Rebounds
DEN
42.75
20th / 30
PHX
27.88
5th / 30
Assists
DEN
27.75
6th / 30
PHX
98.10
21st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
97.55
25th / 30
PHX
54.69%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
55.40%
4th / 30
PHX
12.70%
11th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
12.40%
9th / 30
PHX
25.80%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
25.60%
22nd / 30
PHX
.236
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.315
6th / 30
PHX
114.55
18th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
118.15
7th / 30
PHX
120.92
27th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
115.97
19th / 30
PHX
-6.37
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
+2.18
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.16%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.52%3rd/30
13.5116th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.9223rd/30
37.5917th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.0628th/30
35.93%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.05%10th/30
28.809th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.116th/30
52.1111th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.568th/30
55.26%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.22%6th/30
16.4427th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.177th/30
21.1527th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.298th/30
77.71%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.22%9th/30
11.3420th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.8923rd/30
28.6729th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9310th/30
9.438th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.124th/30
4.9716th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.5929th/30
14.4010th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.977th/30
23.5724th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.352nd/30
Opponent
46.98%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.55%20th/30
15.0426th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2221st/30
39.3720th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.0124th/30
38.19%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.69%16th/30
26.639th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.9622nd/30
49.3110th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.7720th/30
54.01%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.94%22nd/30
22.5525th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.382nd/30
29.3126th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
18.961st/30
76.96%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.08%27th/30
14.9130th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.3323rd/30
32.6216th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.6511th/30
7.908th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3315th/30
4.597th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.486th/30
17.333rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6312th/30
19.112nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.9623rd/30
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