DET75%
Sat 8:00 PM ET
25%MIA
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Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

Sat 8:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
7-3
75%
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
4-6
25%
Model expected score: Detroit Pistons 117.6 – Miami Heat 110.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Miami Heat, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
69%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
83% over17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
22.9
Duncan RobinsonSF
18.2
Jalen DurenC
13.0
Paul ReedC
12.2
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.5
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.5
Bam AdebayoC
18.5
Davion MitchellPG
16.2
Klay ThompsonSF
14.7
Andrew WigginsSF
8.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DET
111.67
20th / 30
Points
MIA
115.80
12th / 30
DET
43.89
15th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
42.10
T-23rd / 30
DET
26.89
10th / 30
Assists
MIA
29.20
2nd / 30
DET
97.20
26th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
102.83
3rd / 30
DET
54.91%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
54.34%
11th / 30
DET
12.89%
12th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
12.93%
15th / 30
DET
25.64%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
22.89%
27th / 30
DET
.267
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.280
18th / 30
DET
114.89
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
112.61
19th / 30
DET
106.88
2nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
117.77
25th / 30
DET
+8.00
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
-5.15
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.51%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.83%10th/30
14.868th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1318th/30
39.1013th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.6115th/30
38.01%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.01%20th/30
26.2917th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8115th/30
49.3817th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.8219th/30
53.24%19th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.97%3rd/30
17.7223rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.6024th/30
23.6622nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5119th/30
74.88%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
71.83%29th/30
11.4319th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.0228th/30
33.727th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.9222nd/30
9.607th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9717th/30
6.742nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0614th/30
14.6313th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5912th/30
23.6625th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.325th/30
Opponent
42.60%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.83%28th/30
12.2311th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.9530th/30
37.0411th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.4522nd/30
33.02%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.42%28th/30
25.265th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.6510th/30
50.9815th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.785th/30
49.55%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.96%25th/30
19.6619th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.634th/30
25.7217th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.494th/30
76.44%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.38%16th/30
13.1522nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.504th/30
33.1520th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7426th/30
8.3416th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0711th/30
5.6024th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2520th/30
17.265th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8510th/30
22.4113th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2420th/30
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