LAL85%
Wed 8:00 PM ET
15%MIL
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

Wed 8:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
10-2
85%
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
1-9
15%
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 123.7 – Milwaukee Bucks 112.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Milwaukee Bucks, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
78%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
6%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
92% over8% under
O/U LINE 220
80% over20% under
O/U LINE 230
63% over37% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under
O/U LINE 250
24% over76% under
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
40.1
Austin ReavesSG
25.3
Walker KesslerC
14.4
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.1
Matisse ThybulleSF
7.1
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
21.4
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
15.2
Kyle KuzmaPF
11.6
Ryan RollinsPG
10.7
Brayden BurriesSG
10.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
121.91
1st / 30
Points
MIL
108.40
25th / 30
LAL
40.27
29th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
46.50
7th / 30
LAL
23.55
27th / 30
Assists
MIL
25.70
20th / 30
LAL
98.88
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
99.26
17th / 30
LAL
58.93%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
51.55%
23rd / 30
LAL
14.34%
25th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
13.92%
21st / 30
LAL
28.37%
14th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
29.51%
10th / 30
LAL
.376
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.225
28th / 30
LAL
123.29
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
109.21
25th / 30
LAL
115.75
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
122.51
28th / 30
LAL
+7.54
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-13.30
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.50%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.49%25th/30
14.0711th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.719th/30
37.0518th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.932nd/30
37.97%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.49%23rd/30
28.0413th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.9926th/30
46.3425th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.3523rd/30
60.52%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.77%21st/30
25.012nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.1130th/30
31.352nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.5528th/30
79.77%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.53%28th/30
11.0321st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.006th/30
29.7026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8411th/30
10.393rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.7430th/30
6.533rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8417th/30
16.2723rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.2222nd/30
24.1828th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4712th/30
Opponent
45.61%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.42%19th/30
15.3528th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7125th/30
40.9123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.6127th/30
37.53%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.35%19th/30
24.273rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1224th/30
45.973rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.7922nd/30
52.80%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.15%20th/30
21.1522nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1520th/30
28.4124th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.5021st/30
74.43%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.05%9th/30
13.7924th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.8129th/30
27.861st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.4523rd/30
9.8427th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.9730th/30
3.863rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.2528th/30
18.112nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.3929th/30
25.1028th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.243rd/30
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