DEN36%
Wed 8:00 PM ET
64%MEM
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Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

Wed 8:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
5-4
36%
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
7-3
64%
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 113.6 – Memphis Grizzlies 117.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Memphis Grizzlies, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game (centered on this model's own predicted margin -- no market line posted for this game yet).

Lost
38%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number).

O/U LINE 210
87% over13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over27% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
53% over47% under
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jamal MurrayPG
24.3
Nikola JokićC
22.9
Christian BraunSG
13.5
Aaron GordonPF
12.3
Cameron JohnsonPF
10.8
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromePG
26.6
Cameron BoozerPF
15.6
Cedric CowardSG
13.8
Jaylen WellsSG
10.7
Zach EdeyC
8.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
115.25
13th / 30
Points
MEM
117.89
9th / 30
DEN
42.75
20th / 30
Rebounds
MEM
48.78
2nd / 30
DEN
27.75
6th / 30
Assists
MEM
26.44
T-14th / 30
DEN
97.55
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MEM
100.80
6th / 30
DEN
55.40%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MEM
54.10%
14th / 30
DEN
12.40%
9th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MEM
13.50%
18th / 30
DEN
25.60%
22nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MEM
29.00%
12th / 30
DEN
.315
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MEM
.258
24th / 30
DEN
118.15
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
116.96
10th / 30
DEN
115.97
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
110.89
8th / 30
DEN
+2.18
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MEM
+6.06
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.52%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.78%17th/30
11.9223rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.996th/30
33.0628th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.6812th/30
36.05%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.78%5th/30
30.116th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.2418th/30
53.568th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3816th/30
56.22%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.08%24th/30
22.177th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5116th/30
27.298th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.2623rd/30
81.22%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.89%1st/30
10.8923rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7912th/30
32.9310th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.613rd/30
10.124th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.0629th/30
3.5929th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0713th/30
13.977th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6518th/30
19.352nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.1427th/30
Opponent
46.55%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.08%12th/30
14.2221st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.139th/30
41.0124th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.9310th/30
34.69%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.84%10th/30
28.9622nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.7818th/30
51.7720th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5919th/30
55.94%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.85%14th/30
15.382nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9613th/30
18.961st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0214th/30
81.08%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.77%8th/30
13.3323rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.139th/30
31.6511th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.3110th/30
8.3315th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1612th/30
4.486th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.7229th/30
15.6312th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0021st/30
23.9623rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.289th/30
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