MIA78%
Tue 9:00 PM ET
22%UTAH
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Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz — Win Probability

Tue 9:00 PM ET
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
4-6
78%
VS
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
1-9
22%
Market line: Miami Heat -10.5, total 228.5 · Model expected score: Miami Heat 119.6 – Utah Jazz 109.1

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out

Margin of Victory — Utah Jazz (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Utah Jazz, across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, centered on the real market spread (Miami Heat -10.5).

Lost
78%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
6%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (228.5).

O/U LINE 210
85% over15% under
O/U LINE 220
68% over32% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
47% over53% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.5
Bam AdebayoC
18.5
Davion MitchellPG
16.2
Klay ThompsonSF
14.7
Andrew WigginsSF
8.3
UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
21.1
Lauri MarkkanenPF
18.0
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
16.3
Darryn PetersonSG
14.8
Ace BaileySF
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
115.80
12th / 30
Points
UTAH
106.20
29th / 30
MIA
42.10
T-23rd / 30
Rebounds
UTAH
45.10
10th / 30
MIA
29.20
2nd / 30
Assists
UTAH
24.30
26th / 30
MIA
102.83
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
UTAH
101.03
5th / 30
MIA
54.34%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
UTAH
49.54%
28th / 30
MIA
12.93%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
UTAH
14.63%
26th / 30
MIA
22.89%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
UTAH
25.84%
18th / 30
MIA
.280
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
UTAH
.289
14th / 30
MIA
112.61
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
105.12
29th / 30
MIA
117.77
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
116.70
24th / 30
MIA
-5.15
22nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
UTAH
-11.58
26th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.83%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.97%27th/30
13.1318th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.3826th/30
38.6115th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.4423rd/30
34.01%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.12%26th/30
27.8115th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.8420th/30
48.8219th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1815th/30
56.97%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.48%28th/30
17.6024th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3017th/30
24.5119th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0416th/30
71.83%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.08%17th/30
10.0228th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1815th/30
30.9222nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4716th/30
7.9717th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.0328th/30
5.0614th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.245th/30
14.5912th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.7326th/30
20.325th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.1621st/30
Opponent
48.83%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.42%14th/30
15.9530th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.088th/30
40.4522nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.854th/30
39.42%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.67%22nd/30
26.6510th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.2213th/30
46.785th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6621st/30
56.96%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.69%7th/30
16.634th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
26.0330th/30
21.494th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.9830th/30
77.38%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.03%28th/30
10.504th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.098th/30
33.7426th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.9428th/30
8.0711th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7025th/30
5.2520th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3522nd/30
15.8510th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2519th/30
23.2420th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.3525th/30
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