NO87
FINAL
138GS
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
4-6
87
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
7-3
138
Market line: Golden State Warriors -11.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: New Orleans Pelicans 109.0 – Golden State Warriors 120.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 51
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
19%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
21.0
Jeremiah FearsPG
15.8
Trey Murphy IIISF
15.6
Dejounte MurrayPG
14.9
Karlo MatkovićPF
9.6
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
31.3
Yaxel LendeborgSF
21.2
Brandin PodziemskiSG
15.8
Gui SantosPF
6.6
Will RichardSG
5.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
NO
120.50
2nd / 30
Points
GS
118.60
5th / 30
NO
43.50
18th / 30
Rebounds
GS
43.70
16th / 30
NO
25.10
24th / 30
Assists
GS
28.20
4th / 30
NO
103.87
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
99.22
18th / 30
NO
53.83%
15th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
56.23%
2nd / 30
NO
13.84%
20th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
14.29%
24th / 30
NO
25.53%
T-24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
29.58%
8th / 30
NO
.362
3rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.314
7th / 30
NO
116.01
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
119.54
5th / 30
NO
116.30
21st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
114.50
15th / 30
NO
-0.29
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+5.04
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.57%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.92%9th/30
8.8630th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.132nd/30
26.9630th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.828th/30
32.86%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.51%1st/30
32.061st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.4928th/30
57.283rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.7627th/30
55.97%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.52%18th/30
25.321st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.176th/30
30.524th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.219th/30
82.97%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.48%7th/30
10.4927th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7013th/30
31.3920th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.3521st/30
10.782nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.279th/30
4.2424th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0415th/30
15.6919th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.4325th/30
23.2022nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.6816th/30
Opponent
47.92%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.27%17th/30
12.1310th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3017th/30
37.5514th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.7017th/30
32.31%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.38%15th/30
28.8821st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9219th/30
48.047th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3912th/30
60.12%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.40%21st/30
22.1423rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7511th/30
28.4023rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.9910th/30
77.97%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.15%20th/30
11.4612th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7019th/30
30.627th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.244th/30
7.807th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7826th/30
4.8114th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2419th/30
15.5015th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.737th/30
23.2019th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7922nd/30
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