DEN100
FINAL
110HOU
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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
5-3
100
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
7-3
110
Market line: Houston Rockets -4.5, total 223.0 · Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 109.3 – Houston Rockets 113.7

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
210

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (223.0). The real combined score was 210.

O/U LINE 210
77% over23% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jamal MurrayPG
24.3
Nikola JokićC
22.9
Christian BraunSG
13.5
Aaron GordonPF
12.3
Cameron JohnsonPF
10.8
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Alperen ŞengünC
21.5
Kevin DurantSF
20.8
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
17.3
Amen ThompsonSF
15.6
Fred VanVleetPG
13.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
115.25
13th / 30
Points
HOU
116.00
11th / 30
DEN
42.75
20th / 30
Rebounds
HOU
43.90
14th / 30
DEN
27.75
6th / 30
Assists
HOU
26.80
T-11th / 30
DEN
97.55
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
HOU
96.37
27th / 30
DEN
55.40%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
HOU
55.23%
6th / 30
DEN
12.40%
9th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
HOU
13.05%
16th / 30
DEN
25.60%
22nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
HOU
31.37%
6th / 30
DEN
.315
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
HOU
.296
10th / 30
DEN
118.15
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
120.37
3rd / 30
DEN
115.97
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
111.03
9th / 30
DEN
+2.18
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
HOU
+9.34
4th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.52%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.85%4th/30
11.9223rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1817th/30
33.0628th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.0724th/30
36.05%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.57%7th/30
30.116th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.577th/30
53.568th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.277th/30
56.22%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.49%13th/30
22.177th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.698th/30
27.298th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4610th/30
81.22%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.96%5th/30
10.8923rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.288th/30
32.9310th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2718th/30
10.124th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.2410th/30
3.5929th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.334th/30
13.977th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1515th/30
19.352nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.134th/30
Opponent
46.55%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.83%16th/30
14.2221st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4513th/30
41.0124th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.4321st/30
34.69%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.58%2nd/30
28.9622nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1625th/30
51.7720th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.3617th/30
55.94%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.77%24th/30
15.382nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.361st/30
18.961st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.063rd/30
81.08%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.91%2nd/30
13.3323rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5618th/30
31.6511th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.052nd/30
8.3315th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.4423rd/30
4.486th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.842nd/30
15.6312th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.089th/30
23.9623rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0417th/30
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