IND122
FINAL
125DAL
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Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
3-7
122
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
6-4
125
Market line: Dallas Mavericks -4.0, total 226.5 · Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 111.3 – Dallas Mavericks 115.3

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
38%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (226.5). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 240
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Pascal SiakamPF
21.4
Andrew NembhardSG
17.8
Aaron NesmithSF
12.1
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
8.5
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
24.0
Kyrie IrvingPG
21.4
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.8
Daniel GaffordC
9.8
Max ChristieSG
6.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
IND
110.30
22nd / 30
Points
DAL
113.90
15th / 30
IND
42.10
T-23rd / 30
Rebounds
DAL
44.80
12th / 30
IND
27.00
T-8th / 30
Assists
DAL
26.40
16th / 30
IND
99.60
12th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
97.96
22nd / 30
IND
53.40%
16th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
54.30%
12th / 30
IND
12.92%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
13.53%
19th / 30
IND
20.97%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
30.12%
7th / 30
IND
.272
20th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.257
25th / 30
IND
110.74
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
116.27
12th / 30
IND
114.65
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
111.37
10th / 30
IND
-3.92
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
+4.90
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.25%13th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.40%5th/30
12.4521st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4520th/30
38.1516th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8519th/30
32.63%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.80%21st/30
27.8116th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.324th/30
48.8918th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.399th/30
56.88%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.79%5th/30
17.7722nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.2719th/30
23.6921st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.1724th/30
75.00%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.85%12th/30
9.5430th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.0711th/30
32.7313th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6715th/30
7.2326th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8812th/30
4.8218th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.927th/30
14.4611th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.7220th/30
20.886th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8718th/30
Opponent
45.17%13th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.67%10th/30
13.9618th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.544th/30
39.3619th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.6716th/30
35.46%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.62%1st/30
26.9111th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.0923rd/30
51.1016th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.2924th/30
52.65%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.60%18th/30
18.9814th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.5810th/30
23.898th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.1115th/30
79.41%23rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.98%4th/30
12.2517th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.9926th/30
35.9429th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.325th/30
8.5317th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6818th/30
4.629th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3121st/30
13.9623rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2116th/30
22.8916th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.826th/30
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