MEM118
FINAL
102TOR
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
6-3
118
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
5-4
102
Market line: Toronto Raptors -2.5, total 228.5 · Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 113.0 – Toronto Raptors 115.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Grizzlies won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
220

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (228.5). The real combined score was 220.

O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromePG
26.6
Cameron BoozerPF
15.6
Cedric CowardSG
13.8
Jaylen WellsSG
10.7
Zach EdeyC
8.3
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Scottie BarnesPF
23.5
RJ BarrettSF
21.6
Kawhi LeonardSF
19.5
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.4
Ja'Kobe WalterSG
10.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MEM
117.89
9th / 30
Points
TOR
118.22
7th / 30
MEM
48.78
2nd / 30
Rebounds
TOR
42.22
22nd / 30
MEM
26.44
T-14th / 30
Assists
TOR
28.67
3rd / 30
MEM
100.80
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
100.30
8th / 30
MEM
54.10%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
52.16%
21st / 30
MEM
13.50%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
11.72%
5th / 30
MEM
29.00%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
32.68%
1st / 30
MEM
.258
24th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.311
8th / 30
MEM
116.96
10th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
117.87
9th / 30
MEM
110.89
8th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
112.44
11th / 30
MEM
+6.06
8th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+5.43
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.78%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.23%14th/30
14.996th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.9728th/30
39.6812th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.7825th/30
37.78%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.53%27th/30
26.2418th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.792nd/30
50.3816th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.712nd/30
52.08%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.09%10th/30
19.5116th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.389th/30
23.2623rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.805th/30
83.89%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.23%27th/30
12.7912th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.734th/30
35.613rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.3630th/30
6.0629th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.521st/30
5.0713th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8827th/30
15.6518th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.966th/30
24.1427th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
26.7030th/30
Opponent
45.08%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.25%23rd/30
12.139th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.077th/30
36.9310th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.125th/30
32.84%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.39%20th/30
27.7818th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.928th/30
51.5919th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.304th/30
53.85%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.98%23rd/30
18.9613th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.3729th/30
25.0214th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.5729th/30
75.77%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.71%25th/30
11.139th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.412nd/30
31.3110th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.356th/30
8.1612th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2013th/30
6.7229th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1017th/30
14.0021st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.281st/30
21.289th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.5930th/30
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