WSH111
FINAL
122DET
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Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
4-6
111
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
6-3
122
Market line: Detroit Pistons -10.5, total 219.5 · Model expected score: Washington Wizards 104.5 – Detroit Pistons 115.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
233

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (219.5). The real combined score was 233.

O/U LINE 210
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 230
28% over ✓72% under
O/U LINE 240
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
4% over96% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony DavisPF
23.4
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
18.5
Trae YoungPG
18.4
AJ DybantsaSF
16.0
Alex SarrC
10.6
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
22.9
Duncan RobinsonSF
18.2
Jalen DurenC
13.0
Paul ReedC
12.2
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
107.80
26th / 30
Points
DET
111.67
20th / 30
WSH
41.60
26th / 30
Rebounds
DET
43.89
15th / 30
WSH
24.60
25th / 30
Assists
DET
26.89
10th / 30
WSH
97.92
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
97.20
26th / 30
WSH
51.41%
24th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
54.91%
7th / 30
WSH
12.32%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
12.89%
12th / 30
WSH
22.17%
29th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
25.64%
21st / 30
WSH
.293
12th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.267
21st / 30
WSH
110.09
23rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
114.89
16th / 30
WSH
114.89
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
106.88
2nd / 30
WSH
-4.80
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+8.00
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.83%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.51%11th/30
9.7029th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.868th/30
32.1729th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.1013th/30
30.16%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.01%3rd/30
30.135th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.2917th/30
54.746th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.3817th/30
55.04%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.24%19th/30
20.7311th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.7223rd/30
25.4314th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.6622nd/30
81.53%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.88%24th/30
9.8029th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4319th/30
32.6814th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.727th/30
7.8619th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.607th/30
5.728th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.742nd/30
13.795th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.6313th/30
19.913rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6625th/30
Opponent
44.34%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.60%3rd/30
13.0714th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.2311th/30
41.2625th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0411th/30
31.68%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.02%11th/30
29.7228th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.265th/30
55.2529th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9815th/30
53.79%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.55%3rd/30
16.243rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6619th/30
19.102nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.7217th/30
85.03%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.44%10th/30
14.7128th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1522nd/30
34.4227th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1520th/30
9.0921st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3416th/30
3.061st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6024th/30
13.9922nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.265th/30
21.5511th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4113th/30
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