CLE112
FINAL
124CHA
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
5-5
112
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
3-7
124
Market line: Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5, total 214.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 111.5 – Charlotte Hornets 103.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hornets won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
236

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
74%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
8%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (214.5). The real combined score was 236.

O/U LINE 210 MARKET LINE
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 220
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 230
20% over ✓80% under
O/U LINE 240
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
2% over98% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Evan MobleyPF
18.4
James HardenPG
15.7
Jarrett AllenC
13.3
Meleek ThomasSG
12.3
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.6
Naz ReidC
16.6
Dennis SchröderPG
10.2
Moussa DiabatéC
8.9
Coby WhitePG
6.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
117.00
10th / 30
Points
CHA
96.30
30th / 30
CLE
47.60
5th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
45.80
8th / 30
CLE
27.00
T-8th / 30
Assists
CHA
20.80
30th / 30
CLE
100.50
7th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
94.51
30th / 30
CLE
54.51%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
46.65%
30th / 30
CLE
11.71%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
16.02%
29th / 30
CLE
25.56%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
31.83%
4th / 30
CLE
.283
17th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.217
29th / 30
CLE
116.42
11th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
101.90
30th / 30
CLE
113.53
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
116.60
23rd / 30
CLE
+2.89
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-14.71
29th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.94%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
39.26%30th/30
15.324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5415th/30
42.097th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.091st/30
36.41%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.76%29th/30
25.7721st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.4329th/30
47.3622nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.5528th/30
54.41%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.36%29th/30
18.9118th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.4028th/30
25.2715th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.8929th/30
74.80%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.45%4th/30
11.4418th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.661st/30
35.922nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8012th/30
7.1627th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.4124th/30
5.479th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0812th/30
13.334th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.1530th/30
21.398th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2211th/30
Opponent
43.92%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.21%22nd/30
13.2316th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.3427th/30
39.2018th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.5615th/30
33.76%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.85%30th/30
27.7617th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.827th/30
54.1328th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.6311th/30
51.29%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.03%8th/30
18.319th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9412th/30
23.287th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.4412th/30
78.63%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.49%17th/30
12.7420th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.951st/30
33.3321st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5424th/30
7.064th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.9529th/30
3.884th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7612th/30
12.3430th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7117th/30
20.605th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6021st/30
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