LAL124
FINAL
114ATL
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
9-2
124
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
7-4
114
Market line: Atlanta Hawks -1.5, total 236.5 · Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 117.6 – Atlanta Hawks 119.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Lakers won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
238

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (236.5). The real combined score was 238.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
40.1
Austin ReavesSG
25.3
Walker KesslerC
14.4
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.1
Matisse ThybulleSF
7.1
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
22.1
Jalen JohnsonPF
19.8
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.5
CJ McCollumPG
12.9
Dyson DanielsSF
9.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
121.91
1st / 30
Points
ATL
118.64
4th / 30
LAL
40.27
29th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
44.09
13th / 30
LAL
23.55
27th / 30
Assists
ATL
31.55
1st / 30
LAL
98.88
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
102.08
4th / 30
LAL
58.93%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
53.14%
17th / 30
LAL
14.34%
25th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
12.00%
7th / 30
LAL
28.37%
14th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
29.38%
11th / 30
LAL
.376
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.208
30th / 30
LAL
123.29
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
116.22
13th / 30
LAL
115.75
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
113.10
12th / 30
LAL
+7.54
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
+3.12
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.50%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.32%22nd/30
14.0711th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.877th/30
37.0518th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.665th/30
37.97%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.86%15th/30
28.0413th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2312th/30
46.3425th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.4610th/30
60.52%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.82%16th/30
25.012nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.1429th/30
31.352nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.7730th/30
79.77%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.58%18th/30
11.0321st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.897th/30
29.7026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.3027th/30
10.393rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.716th/30
6.533rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.7428th/30
16.2723rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.168th/30
24.1828th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7310th/30
Opponent
45.61%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.26%26th/30
15.3528th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.951st/30
40.9123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.572nd/30
37.53%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.63%9th/30
24.273rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.8329th/30
45.973rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9414th/30
52.80%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.57%28th/30
21.1522nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.5721st/30
28.4124th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8318th/30
74.43%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.66%24th/30
13.7924th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2210th/30
27.861st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.4022nd/30
9.8427th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9920th/30
3.863rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5223rd/30
18.112nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.284th/30
25.1028th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.061st/30
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