MIA114
FINAL
108SAC
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Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
3-6
114
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
1-8
108
Market line: Miami Heat -11.0, total 236.5 · Model expected score: Miami Heat 123.8 – Sacramento Kings 112.7

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
222

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
79%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
6%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (236.5). The real combined score was 222.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.3
Bam AdebayoC
18.6
Davion MitchellPG
16.1
Klay ThompsonSF
13.8
Andrew WigginsSF
8.6
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius Acuff Jr.PG
25.2
Zach LaVineSG
22.1
Domantas SabonisC
15.3
De'Andre HunterSF
13.0
Precious AchiuwaC
10.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
115.80
12th / 30
Points
SAC
109.10
24th / 30
MIA
42.10
T-23rd / 30
Rebounds
SAC
40.70
28th / 30
MIA
29.20
2nd / 30
Assists
SAC
25.20
23rd / 30
MIA
102.83
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SAC
99.82
11th / 30
MIA
54.34%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SAC
52.52%
19th / 30
MIA
12.93%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SAC
13.96%
22nd / 30
MIA
22.89%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SAC
24.31%
26th / 30
MIA
.280
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SAC
.260
23rd / 30
MIA
112.61
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
109.30
24th / 30
MIA
117.77
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
122.62
29th / 30
MIA
-5.15
22nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SAC
-13.32
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.83%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.65%19th/30
13.1318th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.0222nd/30
38.6115th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.8622nd/30
34.01%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.52%22nd/30
27.8115th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9514th/30
48.8219th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.6913th/30
56.97%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.07%15th/30
17.6024th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.3326th/30
24.5119th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.7425th/30
71.83%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.21%19th/30
10.0228th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.6225th/30
30.9222nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.1525th/30
7.9717th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.5122nd/30
5.0614th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.1130th/30
14.5912th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8321st/30
20.325th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7426th/30
Opponent
48.83%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.71%30th/30
15.9530th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.1319th/30
40.4522nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2713th/30
39.42%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.90%26th/30
26.6510th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.5520th/30
46.785th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.598th/30
56.96%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.76%29th/30
16.634th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.1427th/30
21.494th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.9528th/30
77.38%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.26%15th/30
10.504th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.423rd/30
33.7426th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0619th/30
8.0711th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1222nd/30
5.2520th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.9126th/30
15.8510th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.9224th/30
23.2420th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.844th/30
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