NO123
FINAL
139LAC
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New Orleans Pelicans vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
4-5
123
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
1-7
139
Market line: New Orleans Pelicans -1.5, total 226.5 · Model expected score: New Orleans Pelicans 114.1 – LA Clippers 112.6

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pelicans 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Clippers won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
262

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
55%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (226.5). The real combined score was 262.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 240
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over ✓90% under
O/U LINE 260
3% over ✓97% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
20.6
Dejounte MurrayPG
16.3
Jeremiah FearsPG
14.8
Trey Murphy IIISF
14.3
Karlo MatkovićPF
10.4
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
20.9
Rui HachimuraPF
14.7
Brook LopezC
13.5
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
11.6
Kobe SandersSG
10.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
NO
120.50
2nd / 30
Points
LAC
112.44
17th / 30
NO
43.50
18th / 30
Rebounds
LAC
40.89
27th / 30
NO
25.10
24th / 30
Assists
LAC
26.56
13th / 30
NO
103.87
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
99.94
10th / 30
NO
53.83%
15th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
54.66%
9th / 30
NO
13.84%
20th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
16.19%
30th / 30
NO
25.53%
T-24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
25.74%
20th / 30
NO
.362
3rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.294
11th / 30
NO
116.01
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
112.51
20th / 30
NO
116.30
21st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
116.52
22nd / 30
NO
-0.29
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
-4.00
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.57%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.39%12th/30
8.8630th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0112th/30
26.9630th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.2420th/30
32.86%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.65%2nd/30
32.061st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.2424th/30
57.283rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.3621st/30
55.97%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.18%23rd/30
25.321st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.0114th/30
30.524th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.9018th/30
82.97%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.36%10th/30
10.4927th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.6724th/30
31.3920th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.2424th/30
10.782nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.895th/30
4.2424th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2225th/30
15.6919th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.4629th/30
23.2022nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.7917th/30
Opponent
47.92%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.98%29th/30
12.1310th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.905th/30
37.5514th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.803rd/30
32.31%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.20%18th/30
28.8821st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.6930th/30
48.047th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.1423rd/30
60.12%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.74%27th/30
22.1423rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4617th/30
28.4023rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.3520th/30
77.97%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.84%3rd/30
11.4612th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1215th/30
30.627th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.808th/30
7.807th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6724th/30
4.8114th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7813th/30
15.5015th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.5713th/30
23.2019th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.4610th/30
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