LAL121
FINAL
116DET
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
8-2
121
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
6-2
116
Market line: Detroit Pistons -7.0, total 217.5 · Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 105.3 – Detroit Pistons 112.2

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Lakers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
30%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (217.5). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
44% over ✓56% under
O/U LINE 230
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 240
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
4% over96% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
40.1
Austin ReavesSG
23.5
Walker KesslerC
14.6
Ziaire WilliamsSF
10.3
Matisse ThybulleSF
7.4
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
24.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
19.0
Jalen DurenC
13.0
Paul ReedC
12.8
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
121.91
1st / 30
Points
DET
111.67
20th / 30
LAL
40.27
29th / 30
Rebounds
DET
43.89
15th / 30
LAL
23.55
27th / 30
Assists
DET
26.89
10th / 30
LAL
98.88
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
97.20
26th / 30
LAL
58.93%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
54.91%
7th / 30
LAL
14.34%
25th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
12.89%
12th / 30
LAL
28.37%
14th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
25.64%
21st / 30
LAL
.376
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.267
21st / 30
LAL
123.29
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
114.89
16th / 30
LAL
115.75
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
106.88
2nd / 30
LAL
+7.54
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+8.00
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.50%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.51%11th/30
14.0711th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.868th/30
37.0518th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.1013th/30
37.97%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.01%3rd/30
28.0413th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.2917th/30
46.3425th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.3817th/30
60.52%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.24%19th/30
25.012nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.7223rd/30
31.352nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.6622nd/30
79.77%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.88%24th/30
11.0321st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4319th/30
29.7026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.727th/30
10.393rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.607th/30
6.533rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.742nd/30
16.2723rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.6313th/30
24.1828th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6625th/30
Opponent
45.61%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.60%3rd/30
15.3528th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.2311th/30
40.9123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0411th/30
37.53%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.02%11th/30
24.273rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.265th/30
45.973rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9815th/30
52.80%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.55%3rd/30
21.1522nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6619th/30
28.4124th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.7217th/30
74.43%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.44%10th/30
13.7924th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1522nd/30
27.861st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1520th/30
9.8427th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3416th/30
3.863rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6024th/30
18.112nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.265th/30
25.1028th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4113th/30
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