PHI127
FINAL
121CHI
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
8-2
127
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
1-7
121
Market line: Philadelphia 76ers -9.5, total 238.5 · Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 124.0 – Chicago Bulls 114.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ 76ers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
248

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
76%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
7%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (238.5). The real combined score was 248.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
26.9
Jaylen BrownSF
21.6
Joel EmbiidC
17.9
LeBron JamesPF
14.8
VJ EdgecombeSG
13.2
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Caleb WilsonPF
19.5
Norman PowellSG
19.3
Matas BuzelisSF
12.9
Jalen SmithC
11.0
Josh GiddeyPG
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
111.00
21st / 30
Points
CHI
112.67
16th / 30
PHI
43.36
19th / 30
Rebounds
CHI
43.67
17th / 30
PHI
25.91
19th / 30
Assists
CHI
25.22
22nd / 30
PHI
99.30
16th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHI
103.45
2nd / 30
PHI
51.07%
26th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHI
48.71%
29th / 30
PHI
10.90%
2nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHI
13.08%
17th / 30
PHI
22.64%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHI
27.98%
15th / 30
PHI
.292
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHI
.357
4th / 30
PHI
111.78
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
108.91
26th / 30
PHI
108.67
5th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
125.02
30th / 30
PHI
+3.11
15th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHI
-16.11
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.58%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.40%29th/30
11.6324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0627th/30
34.1526th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.719th/30
34.05%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.18%30th/30
28.2911th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.1019th/30
55.395th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.9424th/30
51.07%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.61%8th/30
20.3213th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.524th/30
26.1812th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.253rd/30
77.62%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.26%21st/30
10.5326th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1010th/30
33.148th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.1128th/30
8.7914th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8420th/30
4.3922nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2610th/30
12.362nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2517th/30
21.619th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.5223rd/30
Opponent
44.50%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.51%27th/30
11.353rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.3924th/30
35.898th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.419th/30
31.63%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.53%29th/30
27.5616th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.4326th/30
51.5418th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.9226th/30
53.46%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.58%17th/30
19.5018th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.9826th/30
26.0919th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.8627th/30
74.74%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.98%13th/30
12.0814th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.1827th/30
35.9830th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7225th/30
6.682nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2714th/30
5.8625th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7310th/30
15.6611th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7527th/30
20.877th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0918th/30
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